A rally that has pushed oil prices to their highest level in nearly a decade shows no sign of slowing as supplies from major exporter Russia are disrupted by sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. (4).
The survey of 35 economists and analysts predicted that Brent crude would average around US$91.15 a barrel this year, a jump from the consensus of US$79.16. 399.54) for January, and the highest estimate for 2022 in all Reuters polls.
US crude was estimated to average $87.68 (R$442.54) in 2022, against the consensus of $76.23 (R$384.75) in January.
Among the highest forecasts, JP Morgan expects oil at $185 by the end of 2022 if the disruption to Russian exports lasts that long, though its average for the year was $98. BRL 494.63).
The highest average forecasts for 2022 were from Rabobank and Raiffeisen, with US$111.43 and US$110 (R$562.42 and R$555.20), respectively.
“The risk premium is increasing,” said Christian Reuter, senior director of sector strategy at NORD Landbk, with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies also unable to adequately compensate for the shortfall.
The benchmark Brent oil surpassed US$ 100 (R$ 504.73) last week for the first time since 2014 and reached US$ 119.84 (R$ 604.87) on Thursday (3). The barrel was trading above US$ 112 (R$ 565.29) on Friday, supported by sanctions on Russia, which normally exports more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd).
While the oil and gas trade is not a direct target, customers have been hesitant to buy Russian oil to avoid getting involved in sanctions.
“Prices could rise to $150 a barrel and even higher if the US and allies take even more aggressive steps to reduce Russia’s oil exports as there is not enough idle capacity to offset a significant reduction in Russian exports,” said John Paisie, president of Advisor Stratas.
An estimated 8% of global supply has been interrupted in recent days. The shortfall may not be offset by the International Energy Agency’s decision to release 60 million barrels of emergency reserves or a likely return of Iranian supplies, analysts said.
The IEA’s clearance represented “a month’s compensation for a potential disruption of one-third of Russia’s 6 million barrels a day oil export flows,” Goldman Sachs said.
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