The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its estimates for oil market demand for the third time in a row.

In particular, the Organization, based in Paris, predicts that global demand for the black gold will be formed at 862,000 barrels per day, from 930,000 barrels per day it predicted before. It’s about a significant slowdown from about 2 million barrels per day in the post-pandemic period, 2022-2023.

The new reduction in estimates is a result of the rapid slowdown recorded by the Chinese marketwhich is reflected in the global outlook.

“Oil demand in China continues to run below expectations, which is a drag on global growth”the IEA pointed out, adding that the contribution of the vast market has been limited to just 20% of global profits this year and next year, compared to almost 70% in 2023.

For next year, however, the International Energy Agency slightly upgraded its estimates to 998,000 barrels from 954,000 barrels.

Lower than OPEC

The IEA’s estimates remain significantly lower than those of OPEC+. Yesterday, the Organization presented its monthly report, where it said that global oil demand will increase by 1.93 million barrels per day in 2024, lower than the increase of 2.03 million barrels it expected last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the forecast unchanged from July 2023.

It is noted that global demand increased by 680,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. In other words, it moved at its slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022, when China was in full lockdown, according to the IEA.

At the same time demand in China was cut by 500,000 barrels per dayon an annual basis. However, the IEA predicts that China will return to moderate growth in the final quarter of the year and 2025, when demand is expected to increase by 220,000 barrels per day.

“Recent measures to support the economy announced by Beijing are expected to lead to a recovery in the trend,” the IEA said. “However, the overall impact may be limited,” he added.

4% drop in prices

IEA estimates found oil prices to fall by 4%a trend that continues up to this time.

The drop came after a Washington Post report that Netanyahu informed Biden that he would only strike military targets in Iran and not nuclear or oil facilities. Thus, concerns about supplies from Iran eased, as did the weaker outlook for demand.

Brent is trading at $74 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is trading at $71.