As war affects inflation and interest, collective purchase startup raises BRL 127 million and what matters in the market

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War should generate more inflation and interest

The consequences of the war in Ukraine for the Brazilian economy, with a more significant impact on fuel and food, have led to an upward adjustment in market expectations for inflation and interest rates in the country.

Understand: even before the conflict, the market saw inflation exceeding 5% in 2022, bursting the target ceiling for the year. Now, analysts are adjusting their estimates, and there are institutions, such as XP, projecting the IPCA above 6% at the end of the year.

More inflation, more interest: If in February the market was betting that the Selic rate would rise by up to 12% a year and begin to decline in December, today economists predict that the basic rate should reach 12.75% a year, with the first cut happening only in 2023.

Bankers heard by sheet have a scenario of credit retraction, high inflation, falling income, less consumption and low growth.

It will weigh in your pocket: while wing of the government struggles over what measure to adopt to avoid the explosion in fuel prices, the rise in agricultural prices should soon be felt by consumers, points out the Commodities Shuttle column.

• In items such as wheat, corn and soy oil, which have two major exporters in Ukraine and Russia, the appreciation is already perceived by the domestic market.
• With buyers in Brazil reluctant to accept the pass-through of the global rise, local producers have opted for the export path.
• Result: the supply of wheat and corn in the country should be reduced, and prices, high, according to analysts and operators in the sector.
• Another input affected by the war is fertilizer. Aggravated by the conflict, the fertilizer crisis has been worrying the country’s producers since last year, says Pedro de Camargo Neto.

Russian oil divides US and EU

US President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday (8) a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas into the US. Unlike the other sanctions, this time the European Union (EU) did not follow the same path.

Vladimir Putin, Russian president, reacted quickly and announced that he will ban or limit Russian commodities trading with other countries until the end of this year. The list of products and nations that will be affected has not yet been released.

What explains: Biden was being pressured by the US Congress to ban Russian energy imports, which barely tickle US domestic consumption. For Eurozone countries, however, the story is different.

In numbers: For the EU, Moscow provides 40% of the block’s gas and a quarter of its crude oil, while only 8% of Russian oil exports go to the US.

• The United Kingdom, which will also stop importing Russian energy by the end of the year, is the destination of 2% of the commodity shipped by the country led by Putin.

Analyze: US decision takes oil prices to new heights, but does not cause collapse, writes columnist Vinicius Torres Freire.

Impact on the markets: Biden’s announcement took the Brent barrel, an international benchmark, to reach the level of $130 (R$ 662), approaching the historic high of 2008, of US$ 146 (R$ 748).

Petrobras shares, which had dropped 7% the day before in reaction to the government’s signal to interfere in the company’s pricing policy, recovered part of the losses and rose two%.

Other reflexes of the soaring price of oil:

Russians without Mc and cold coke

Great icons of Western capitalism this Tuesday added to the list of companies that suspended their operations in Russia.

McDonald’s, Coca-Cola and Starbucks, among others, said they should not operate in the country indefinitely.

why it matters: the decisions hit the Russian middle class squarely, but the McDonald’s case is even more symbolic.

• In the early 1990s, less than three months after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the fast food franchise opened its first store in Moscow, in what marked the end of the Soviet empire, which would come to an end the following year.
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• At the store’s opening, Muscovites formed gigantic lines to visit the restaurant; it is estimated that about 30 thousand people walked into McDonald’s just that day.

Neither Coke nor Pepsi: PepsiCo, which has its third largest consumer market in Russia, announced on Monday that it would also stop operating in the country.

Neighbor shopping startup receives funding

Trela ​​(formerly Zapt), a startup for collective food purchases between neighbors, announced this Tuesday that it received a contribution of $25 million (R$ 127.2 million).

The investment was led by the SoftBank fund focused on Latin America, and also had participation from Kaszek, General Catalyst and Y Combinator, who already had stakes in the startup.

The company: Founded in 2020 under the name of Zapt, the platform allows neighbors – usually from the same condominium – to place collective orders directly with producers via WhatsApp.

• By cutting out intermediaries, the startup claims that prices can be 20% to 60% smaller than those found in traditional retailers.
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• The focus of the food marketed by the platform is on “premium” products, with greater added value. As the purchase is made by neighbors, shipping is free.

why it matters: Trela ​​is yet another Brazilian company that bets on the social shopping format, a model that has China’s Pinduoduo as a global reference.

another brazilian in this business is Facily, which became a unicorn (startups valued at $1 billion or more) late last year. Focusing on the low-income public, she also bets on cutting costs with the collective purchase of products.

With an explosion of orders in the pandemic, the company accumulated thousands of complaints in Procon for delay in deliveries, and in November signed a term of commitment with the body to indemnify consumers and reduce the number of complaints.