The economic climate worsened on Octoberwith the relative index standing at 107.0 points after the significant rise it had recorded at 110.2 points in the previous month. As pointed out in his economic situation survey IOVEthis weakness comes exclusively from manufacturing, with the remaining three sectors and the consumer confidence index improving. The intensifying geopolitical turmoil, which could have strong negative effects on world trade and international capital markets, appears, according to the same survey, to affect the outward-facing segment of domestic industry and cause uncertainties, despite the general up-to-date positive course of product exports.

On the other hand, tourism, despite the small decline it shows this year, made a positive contribution in October to several sectors. Recovery Fund projects also continue to have a multiplier effect on the economy, while construction also has strong activity and a high backlog, with many months of assured activity ahead.

As noted, inflation remains at higher relative levels, resulting in continued pressure on households and low consumer confidence, despite a slight easing of pessimism this month.

These general trends are expected to be maintained in the medium term, however developments in the international environment may have a catalytic effect on domestic expectations in the near future. In detail:

– In manufacturing, the negative balance of estimates for orders and demand strengthened significantly, estimates for inventories intensified, while positive forecasts for production in the coming months receded.

– In construction, the negative forecasts for the business work program strengthened, while on the contrary the positive forecasts for employment improved.

– In retail trade, estimates for current sales are weakening marginally, with inventory levels unchanged and forecasts for short-term sales developments improving.

– In services, positive estimates for the current state of business remain unchanged, while estimates for current demand weaken slightly with forecasts for short-term demand developments moving slightly upwards.

– In consumer confidence, households’ negative forecasts for the country’s economic situation were limited, while the corresponding ones for their own economic situation were strengthened. At the same time, forecasts for major markets fell slightly, while the intention to save weakened.