A deterioration in the expectations of management consultants for the course of the Greek economy over the next 12 months, according to the results of the Barometer of the Association of Management Consultants (SEA) on the economy.

In particular, the general index GRe+1, which is the average of the indicators of the economic situation and production factors, stood at 15.4% at the end of the third quarter from 22.3% the previous one. The annual decline is much greater. In the third quarter of 2023, the relative index had a value of 25.8%. The deterioration in expectations is due almost equally to both components of GRe+1, i.e., both the estimates for economic fundamentals and those for production factors.

It is noted that in the third quarter of the year, the average difference between the percentages of “positive” and “negative” responses for the five variables of the economic situation index (rate of economic growth, unemployment, private fixed capital investment, exports and rate of change in the general level of prices) decreased to 21.8% from 28.2% at the end of the second quarter of 2024. The decrease was even greater compared to the third quarter of 2023, when the index had a value of 52.0%.

The deterioration in the third quarter compared to the previous one comes mainly from the estimates of the growth rate of the economy, which is probably linked to the concern about the course of the major economies of the eurozone. It is also due to estimates of persistent inflation and private investment. Conversely, there was a slight improvement in expectations for unemployment and, to a greater extent, for exports of goods and services. The picture obtained from the comparison with the third quarter of 2023 is similar.

In the third, as in the second quarter of 2024, the decline in optimism in the expectations of management consultants for the development of the factors of production during the next 12 months was more pronounced than for the economic fundamentals. The average “optimism” and “pessimism” difference for the factors of production index variables (human capital, financing conditions, public infrastructure, entrepreneurship and institutional framework) narrowed to single digits, 9.0%, from 16.4% in the previous quarter . Even stronger was the decrease compared to the third quarter of 2023, when the difference in question was 23.1%. The deterioration of expectations concerns all variables.

On a quarterly basis, the biggest decline was in expectations for entrepreneurship and public infrastructure. However, it should be noted that in all five variables the majority of consultants believe that there will be no significant changes in the next twelve months.

Regarding the inhibiting factors in business activity, the main three continued to be related to the weaknesses of the public sector. Inefficient public administration ranks first, followed by the functioning of the judiciary. In third place are the discontinuities observed in the state operation. The following are the obstacles raised by the tax regime, i.e. by its frequent changes and high taxation.