The lack of progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and stronger signs that inflation could wreak further havoc on the global economy led Western financial markets to oscillate in a negative region on Thursday (10).
The Ibovespa, reference index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange, retreated 0.21%, to 113,663 points. With the fall on Thursday, the domestic stock market lost part of the 2.5% advance on the previous day, attributed to a global wave of optimism generated by apparent progress in talks towards an end to the war.
On Thursday, however, the first meeting between foreign ministers Sergei Lavrov (Russia) and Dmitro Kuleba (Ukraine) ended without an agreement.
Indicating investors’ concern with riskier financial investments, the dollar closed with a slight increase of 0.11%, at R$ 5.0170. At the maximum of the day, the currency rose more than 1%, to R$5.0760.
European stocks also had a negative day. London, Paris and Frankfurt, the most important in the region, lost 1.27%, 2.83% and 2.93%, respectively.
In the United States, the main stock market indicator, the S&P 500, dropped 0.43%. The Dow Jones index, which gathers the highest value American companies, lost 0.34%. The sharpest drop was concentrated in technology companies with the highest growth potential listed on Nasdaq, which fell 0.95%.
In addition to the absence of positive news about the war in Ukraine, US government data released on Thursday showed that annual inflation in the country renewed the highest high in 40 years, rising 7.9%.
Without a truce in the war and the consequent maintenance of the escalation in the price of oil, the next reports on inflation may show even greater advances in the cost of living of the American consumer.
An inflationary context aggravated by the conflict in Europe tends to put even more pressure on the Fed (Federal Reserve, the American central bank) to increase the country’s interest rate from the next meeting of its monetary policy committee, scheduled for the next 15 days. and March 16th.
Depending on the size and speed of growth of the rate – today practically zero –, stock markets around the world tend to lose capital to US Treasury bonds, considered the safest investment in the world market.
At the center of inflationary pressure is oil, whose price of a barrel of the Brent type dropped 1.85% at the beginning of the night of this Thursday, to US$ 109.08 (R$ 550.93), after having advanced to US$ 118 for the morning.
“Investors are oscillating between hope and fear linked to a possible ceasefire or some sort of positive outcome. [na Ucrânia]”, Mike Mussio, president of FBB Capital Partners, told The Wall Street Journal.
On Wednesday (9), expectations about the increase in oil supply helped to bring down the price of the commodity. At the time, the United Arab Emirates signaled support for an increase in production.
The country’s ambassador in Washington, Yousuf Al Otaiba, said he was in favor of an increase in production. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said the UAE was supporting the addition.
Hours later, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Twitter that the country believes in “the value that OPEC+ brings to the oil market”, referring to the cartel formed by producing countries from which the UAE United Arabs are part.
Since the advance of Russian troops in Ukrainian territory, on February 24, the price of oil has already risen 12.59%.
The price pressure was amplified by President Joe Biden’s decision to ban imports of raw material produced in Russia, which is one of the largest global exporters.
Last Tuesday (8), when the American embargo was confirmed, the barrel of Brent closed at US$ 127.98, approaching the record US$ 147.50 of July 2008.
It is not just the war that has accelerated the price of oil. Since late last year, OPEC and its allies have refused to heed Western calls for a faster increase in raw material supplies.
The need to increase production was already presented as something urgent due to the growth in demand after the economic reopening made possible by the advance of vaccination against Covid-19. This year alone, the accumulated increase is 40.25%, more than half of this advance (24.51%) had already taken place before the beginning of the war.
Petrobras rises with announcement of mega-increase in fuels
Petrobras shares rose on Thursday after the company announced earlier readjustments in the prices of gasoline and diesel at refineries. The increases come into effect on Friday (11).
Preferred shares (which do not give the right to vote, but have preference in receiving dividends) jumped 3.50%. Common shares (with voting rights) advanced 2.80%.
Pressured by the advance of oil prices with the war between Russia and Ukraine, the company controlled by the federal government will increase gasoline by 18.8% for distributors. For diesel, the increase is even greater, at 24.9%. The value will rise by almost R$ 1 per liter, from R$ 3.61 to R$ 4.51. Cooking gas will have an adjustment of 16.1%.
The soaring price of oil in the international market has reinforced investors’ fears about the political debate regarding Petrobras’ international price parity.
Last Monday (7), the company’s shares sank more than 7% after President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) criticized the system that equates the value of fuel in Brazil to the fluctuation of the price of raw materials and the dollar.
The fall on the stock exchange led Petrobras to lose R$ 34.7 billion in market value in a single day.
Étore Sanchez, chief economist at Ativa Investimentos, believes that the new price to be charged by Petrobras still has a 10% lag for gasoline and that this should not be corrected in the short term.
Still in the commodities sector, Vale rose 3.30%, signaling a partial recovery from the recent declines caused by negative expectations regarding Chinese interventions to cool the prices of the metallic commodities market.
Embraer sank 14.93%, leading the declines on the Stock Exchange. The drop came a day after the company reported net income of R$11.1 million in the fourth quarter, reversing a loss of R$7.7 million suffered a year earlier.
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