By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

The message of the stable governing majority that the prime minister delivered at the Bloomberg event was not only aimed at ending the scenario within the country that triggered the deletion of Mr. Samara. It was also a message to abroad and investors that nothing changes and Greece continues to be a safe and attractive investment destination.

And to top it off, he announced that Greece will continue in 2025 the tradition of early debt repayment that started in 2022, positively surprising markets and analysts. This is the repayment of €5.3 billion which the country had borrowed in the context of the first memorandum.

The early repayment of 2025 is a continuation of this year’s, which Greece has already requested. The OK must be double, i.e. from the European countries – some such as Germany have given it – but also from the European Stability Mechanism as the repayment will require the use of part of the €15.7 billion cash reserves that are reserved in a special account of the Bank of Greece and can only be used for debt repayment. The ESM is expected to respond (positively) in early December.

In fact – what the prime minister did not say – is that there will be an additional early repayment of €5.3 billion if everything goes well in 2026 as well.

Thus the country will repay by the end of 2026 almost €18 billion of debt that would normally mature according to the prime minister between 2030 and 2042
€7.9 billion in mid-December with €5 billion from the “cushion” and the rest from exits to the markets
€5 billion from the “cushion” in 2025
€5 billion from the “cushion” in 2026

Greece, I remind you, had repaid €5.3 billion in both the years 2022 and 2023, despite very difficult years as in the first we had the outbreak of the energy crisis and in the second the interest rate increase strategy unfolded by European Central Bank.

The benefits of such a move are multiple and in many cases tangible.

First and foremost the country’s debt is reduced by the same amount. The government has a stated objective in the Medium Term Program to drop the debt by the end of the year by 20 points compared to 2024 to 133%. In fact, even the most conservative scenarios speak of a drop to 125% by 2032 and thus Greece will hand over the scepter of the most indebted country in Europe to Italy. In addition, there is also a savings from interest, although small, under €200 million, but non-existent.

All these moves strengthen the credibility of the country. In 2026, Greece will have completed 5 years of early debt repayment, although it is not obliged to do so. Greece now has the name “good payer”

This surplus of reliability has been expressed in a variety of ways:

Borrowing rates give our country the opportunity to borrow cheaper than Italy and marginally higher than France and Spain, something that no one would have believed once

The recent negotiations with the Commission which resulted in the Prime Minister being able to announce to the TIF additional benefits of approximately €500m were also a result of this built credibility.

The repeated upgrades of the Greek Economy by the rating agencies which have resulted in 2 out of 3 (Fitch and S&P) having already placed us within the investment grade.

Greece is sending a double message to investors. On the one hand, that they will not lose their money and that she can pay her debts on her own, if she wishes, even prematurely. On the other hand, slowly but surely the Greek debt is shifting from the official bodies (ESM and EFSF) to the markets, opening up their appetite for more and longer appointments with them.