Those who know how to make the best dressing for their salad know that the secret is one: pour vinegar like a beggar and oil like a king.

In recent years, however, this phrase has taken on a whole new dimension. To freely use oil in one’s salad, one had to resemble kings not only in generosity, but also in… wealth, with the price of extra virgin olive oil having skyrocketed.

But that could change this year. Both in Spain, the largest producer of olive oil, and in Greece, the forecasts for the harvest are positive. Another bad year is expected in Italy alone.

In Germany, the price of olive oil has risen by up to 45% in 12 months – according to the German Statistical Office, no other food item has seen such a large price increase. In mid-2024 a 750 ml bottle of olive oil cost 9.49 euros – while in 2022 it was only 3.89 euros.

German supermarkets lower prices

But now German supermarkets seem to be lowering prices again: in October, Aldi reduced the price of a bottle from 9 to 7 euros, an example that other stores followed.

“For the 2024/25 crop season, the EU predicts that the situation will normalize and that production will increase by 31% compared to the previous year,” says Monika Hartmann, Professor of Agricultural Market Research at the University of Bonn. However, apart from the increase in production, there is another reason why the price of olive oil is decreasing: lately there has been a decrease in the demand for olive oil, because due to the high prices, many consumers turned to alternative products.

Rainfall at the right time

It is these consumers that the olive growers want to win back – and they will probably succeed. After the drought of the last months in Greece, heavy rains occurred again this week. “It literally rained at the last minute,” say George and Yiannis Tagaris, who cultivate around 300 olive groves in the Peloponnese. According to experts’ estimates, this year’s harvest in Greece could yield up to 230,000 tons of olive oil – 80,000 more than last year, when weather conditions were anything but favorable.

Spain is a harbinger of weather conditions

In Spain the crisis in production due to weather conditions had a bad effect – many olive mills were forced to close. Cristóbal Cano, secretary general of the Association of Small Farmers and Cattle Breeders of Andalusia, warned at the time of an “irreparable economic and social disaster”, given that the sector employs around 365,000 workers.

After two disastrous seasons the omens look better. For the 2024/25 season, production is expected to increase again by 48% compared to the previous year, with production estimated to reach 1.26 million tonnes. The responsible minister of Spain, Luis Planas, said that the positive indications signal a return to stability.

Kano, however, is more reserved: “We are at the beginning of an effort, in which the reserves are almost zero and the expected production will be less than the average sales of the last five years in our country (1.44 million tons).” That is why the expert does not seem to share the hope of many for a significant reduction in olive oil prices – especially since the climatic conditions of the coming weeks will also be decisive.

No improvement in Italy

However, in contrast to Spain and Greece, olive trees in Italy are still suffering from the weather conditions, drought and summer heat – that is why there are fears that olive oil production will be even lower this year.

According to the first estimates of the Italian agricultural institute Ismea this year’s harvest could yield only 220,000 tons of olive oil – thus presenting a decrease of 32% compared to last year (330,000 tons). If the forecasts are confirmed, Italy could fall to fifth place in the list of the largest olive oil producing countries.

Matteo Muzzelli, who owns olive groves in Tuscany, describes the season as a “particular challenge”. The scant rainfall during the summer months resulted in the trees becoming very weak – and when it did finally rain, the olive trees first tried to collect water and then produce oil.

Edited by: Giorgos Passas