CAC 40: Progressive shortness of breath of the rally

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The CAC index begins a consolidation phase, after the recent rally fueled by hopes of de -escalation in the trade war. But the operators are not fooled: even if Washington signed with London a tariff agreement, and that a 90 -day moratorium was decided with Beijing, the “background” of the case is not deleted, and Trump will not return to the very concept of customs barrier.

“After a little euphoria following the announcement of the drop in prices between the United States and China, from prohibitive levels and the 90-day break to continue to negotiate, it seems that ‘fatigue’ wins risk taking,” said Xavier Chapard de LBPAM.

“This seems reasonable in front of the great uncertainties that still have to dissipate to apprehend the future imposed on us by the United States. The fact that the worst may have been avoided, does not mean that we come back to the world of yesterday,” he adds.

“”Donald Trump will not come back to the very principle of customs duties And it therefore seems difficult to adopt a more optimistic posture than that already integrated by the markets. Above all, the concrete effects of the trade war on the results of companies do not yet seem to be completely at the center of attentions “, insists Thomas GIUDICI, head of the bond management of Auris Gestion.

In the statistical chapter, the confidence index of the American consumer fell to 50.8 points, according to a preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan (U-Mich). The consensus was more optimistic and envisaged a slight increase in this index around 53.5 points.

As a reminder, Thursday was the day of the week which concentrated most of the American statistical benchmarks. And these publications were generally disappointing. Take retail sales, one of the flagship measures of American consumption. They only increased by 0.1%, excluding cars, missing expectations (+0.3%). Target also missed for the production price index (-0.5% for the widest basket), which does not in itself constitute a disaster in the sense that the figure temporarily distances fears of a resumption of inflation. Furthermore, if the manufacturing index Philly Fed lower less than expected (-4.0), the index Empire Statehe melts near -10. Ras, on the other hand, on the side of weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, stable at 229,000 new units, perfectly at the heart of the target.

In addition, the president of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell said that sudden shocks on the supply of goods or raw materials constituted a difficult challenge for the economy and the Fed. “We may enter a period of more frequent and potentially more persistent tender shock – a challenge that is difficult to take up for the economy and central banks,” said Fed boss.

On the values ​​side, the CAC 40 was supported by the increases in Essilorluxottica (+3%) and Sanofi (+2.1%). On the side of medium capitalizations, Bastide won 2.6% after giving vigorous growth in the third quarter of its offbeat exercise 2024-2025.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended the Friday session in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.78%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.52%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, won 0.70% at 5,958 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1210. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 61.10. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.41%. As for the Vix, it was worth 17.83 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow in priority at 11:00 am consumer prices in the euro zone.

Key graphics elements

The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights. This level is doubled from the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), which is a graphic test. This graphic test is currently in the process of being successful, but the filling of another GAP, that of March 31, invites you to restraint.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7900.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7690.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics