By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

In a few hours the Minister of Finance Kostis Hatzidakis will hand over the final draft of the budget to the Speaker of the Parliament, Kostas Tasoula. And everything shows that despite the Commission’s updated, more positive estimates, despite the Minister’s public statements in recent days about the more positive than expected course of the economy and despite the exhortations of international media such as the German newspaper Handelsblaat that for changes in the final text “after Greece now has money”, the government will go “modestly and humbly”. It will therefore largely keep the basic figures as they were in the draft budget.

The growth rate is predicted at 2.2% this year and 2.3% in 2025 against 2.1% and 2.3% respectively of the Commission’s estimates. And in 2025 the Greek economy will grow much faster than the Community average.

The primary surplus will be at 2.5% this year and 2.54% next year (reverse of the draft) and the general government deficit at 0.7% (from 1% of the draft) and 0.6% respectively despite the statements of Kostis Hatzidakis that the deficit this year will be close to 0.

OR Commission estimates this year that the primary surplus will jump to 2.9% with Handelsblaat reporting that this year’s revenue surplus will reach €1.8bn.

As for the deficit of the general government, it will tend to 0 next year to pass to a surplus (0.2%) in 2026.

The budget will foresee a public Debt of 149.1% in 2025 from 153.7% that will be formed at the end of this year. The goal is to reduce by 20 units by 2028.

The Commission sets the bar a little lower, at 153.1% for this year and 146.8% for 2025.

In other sizes:
2024 2025
Inflation 2.7% 2.4% (2.1% in draft)
Unemployment 10.3% 9.7%
Investments 6.7% 8.4%
Primary Expenditures will increase in 2025 by 3.6% with a limit of 3.7% based on the new fiscal rules.

The budget will include a series of measures to increase incomes and reduce taxes amounting to €1.58 billion:

*Contributions: New 1% reduction from New Year 2025. 0.5% from employees and 0.5% from employers. They concern the health sector. Cost €440m

*Increase in pensions: Estimated at around 2.5 with a cost of €400 million

*End of pretension: Abolition of it for freelancers. Cost €120m

*Government salary increase: It will be equal to the new increase in the minimum wage that will be effective from April 1st 2025 so that the introductory salary does not fall short. The other scales will be increased by the same amount in order to avoid distortions in the salary of civil servants. Cost approximately €100m.

*Agricultural oil: Permanentization of the EFK refund with the application of a zero rate from 2025. Cost €100m

*ENFIA: 20% reduction in cases of home insurance worth up to €500,000 against natural disasters. Cost €40m

*Public Productivity Bonus : It will be expanded to many more employees. Cost €40m

*Doctors on call: Independent taxation at a rate of 22%. Cost €40m

*Business: Incentives for innovation and mergers. Cost €40m

* Stamp Fee : Eliminated for hundreds of transactions. Cost €30m

*Fixed Telephony Fee: Remove it for fiber optic connections. Cost €26m

*Night Compensation of Uniforms: 20% increase in the compensation of night workers in Police, Fire, Coast Guard, Armed Forces from 1/1/2025. Cost €25m

*New Properties: Exemption from VAT. Cost €20m

*Health Insurance Premiums: Exemption for children up to 18 years old. Cost €17m

*Critical areas: Incentives to attract doctors. Cost €16m

*Student Housing Allowance: Increase for regional universities from 1,500 euros to 2,000 euros per year and 2,500 in case of cohabitation. Cost €15m

*Vacant properties: Three-year tax exemption for those rented in long-term contracts. Cost €13m

*Business Benefits : Tax free when given to new parents. Cost €7m.

The draft budget will also include the measure of extraordinary aid to 700,000 pensioners with a personal difference that will be paid in December as follows:
· €200 for pensions up to €700
· €150 for pensions of €700.1 to €1,100
· €100 for pensions of €1100.1 to €1600
Cost €100m

An additional €143 million will be shared by 1.2 million members who belong to vulnerable groups:
· €70m to OPECA child benefit beneficiaries who will receive an additional installment
· €37m to beneficiaries of the OPECA DISABLED benefit who will receive €200
· €7 million to e-EFKA disability benefit beneficiaries who will receive €200
· €7 million to uninsured seniors who will receive €200
· 22 thousand to beneficiaries of the Minimum Guaranteed Income who will receive half an additional payment