How the war in Ukraine is affecting international travel

Just as the travel industry was trying to pull itself out of a two-year depression, the Russian attack on Ukraine caused confusion in flight schedules and caused Americans to hesitate in their plans for an international vacation.

The extent of the war’s effects on travelers depends on where they are headed, although experts say rising oil prices are likely to affect airfare prices on flights within the United States.

For Americans who have international travel plans, the map of the planet, which recently appeared to be expanding with the relaxation of restrictions associated with Covid in many countries, has shrunk again. Travel operators generally canceled all trips to Russia for the remainder of the year, which heavily affects Baltic Sea cruise itineraries, where the main port of call was Saint Petersburg.

All of this comes at a time of year when many Americans are starting to plan their summer vacation. Some are hesitant. In a recent survey of nearly 350 American travelers on the impact of the war, MMGY Global, a market research firm, found that 47% of them plan to wait and see how things unfold in Ukraine before making plans to travel to Ukraine. Europe. The conflict surpassed Covid-19 as a factor influencing decisions, and the number of respondents who mentioned concern that the war could expand beyond Ukraine was twice as high as the number of respondents who fear the pandemic.

So far, travel companies are not reporting mass cancellations because travelers, who may have been conditioned to remain flexible because of the pandemic, are sticking to their plans. Nearly 65% ​​of American adults surveyed by travel strategy website TheVacationer.com said they would accept higher prices, longer drive times or other obstacles in order to travel in 2022.

“For now, we’re not seeing a change in behavior from our American travelers,” said Sarah Casewit, senior travel curator at Origin, a travel planning service for members, which in recent weeks has seen an increase in bookings to Europe. .

The inconveniences that travelers will face cannot, of course, compare to the suffering inflicted on Ukrainians. Many travelers want to support Europeans, who expect a robust summer tourism season, but don’t want to complicate humanitarian relief efforts for war refugees.

Given the unpredictability of war, travelers will need to remain flexible as flight operations, cruises and excursions adjust to the conflict.

turbulence in the air

No commercial US airlines are flying to Russia, and those that have operational and code-sharing agreements with Russian airlines, such as Delta and American, have suspended them.

But the US FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) ban on flights over Ukraine, Belarus and much of Russia requires some routes to suffer costly detours. For commercial flights departing the United States, these routes are generally limited to travel to India, which only reopened to tourism in mid-November. United Airlines has temporarily suspended its flights between San Francisco and Delhi and between Newark and Mumbai, although flights from Delhi to Chicago and Newark are still operating.

Detours to avoid Russian airspace on flights to Asia involving lower latitude routes over Alaska add to the cost of those flights, said Robert Mann, a commercial aviation consultant, who estimated that an additional hour of flight time could cost up to US$ 12 thousand (R$ 60 thousand).

These are not the only additional expenses that will be passed on to ticket prices. The rising cost of oil, which is expected to rise further after the Biden administration banned Russian oil imports, is contributing to higher airfares.

But for now, interest in Europe remains strong among air passengers. Hopper, an air travel app, found that the prices of flights from the United States to Europe rose by 16% from mid-February onwards, from US$660 to US$763 (R$3,853). per round trip, which the company attributes to enthusiasm for post-omicron variant travel and the usual seasonal cycle of price increases.

Cruises change route

Cruise ship operators were counting 2022 as their comeback year. But those operating in and around Russia are rapidly altering their routes.

From lines catering to specialist niches like Silversea to big-ship specialists like Carnival, cruise lines have canceled visits to Russian ports. Princess Cruise Lines is modifying the itineraries of 24 cruises that were supposed to make stops in St. Petersburg.

“Some ships spend three full days there, longer than any other city in Europe,” said Samuel Spencer, general manager of Ocean & River Cruises Travel, an agency based in Calgary, Canada, which describes the city’s attractions, example of the Hermitage Museum and the Peterhof Palace, as incomparable. “It’s a big loss.”

Even so, cruise operators are working to find replacement ports. Oceania Cruises, which is also canceling stops at the Russian ports of Murmansk, Archangel, Vladivostok and the Solovetsky Islands, plans to add additional stops in Copenhagen and Stockholm to replace Saint Petersburg.

Outside of Russia and Ukraine, where Viking has canceled its river cruises, river cruise operators are sticking to their European schedules.

“Because we have not yet started the 2022 cruise season, we have no plans at this time to cancel or adjust cruises in Eastern Europe at this time,” Pam Hoffee, executive director of Avalon Waterways, which does not operate in Russia, said in a statement.

As with the cancellations and travel associated with the pandemic, tourist destinations in the United States can benefit. Bookings on American Queen Voyages, which offers cruises on American rivers and lakes, have surged by 30% in the past two weeks, which the company attributes to travelers opting to travel domestically over Europe.

“The biggest impact I’ve seen is on people who have a cruise booked but don’t want their money to go to Russia,” said Victoria Hardison-Sterry, a travel consultant at Lakeshore Travel in Florida, who has a client who has switched a cruise. in the Baltic in 2023 for an Alaskan cruise. “My clients have been vocal about not wanting to help the Russian economy.”

Translation by Paulo Migliacci