By Eamon Akil Farhat

Europe is bracing for the coldest winter since Russia invaded Ukraine, adding to already high energy costs as natural gas reserves on the continent sink at a faster-than-usual rate.

Temperatures between now and March are expected to remain mostly below levels seen over the past two years, according to data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. That is likely to push demand for heating to the highest level since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to data from Maxar Technologies Inc.

However, this winter, like the previous two, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels, the meteorologist added.

The continent remains vulnerable to weather disturbances. A cold winter would put more pressure on already high gas and electricity prices. This could coincide with the cessation of natural gas flows through Ukraine from January 1, when temperatures typically drop to their lowest levels.

Cold temperatures have already led to faster-than-usual natural gas pumping. This raises concerns for late winter and next summer’s stocking season.

The escalation of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine is another “thorn” in Europe’s energy risks.

“We are currently watching the November pattern closely as it seems more in line with those winters where we finally had a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW),” Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at Atmospheric G2 Forecast, said via email.

That may “slightly” increase the chances of such an event later this winter, he added.

Maxar expects mostly mild conditions for northern and central Europe, with any cooler temperatures concentrated mainly in the south, such as Italy and the Balkans, according to meteorologist Matthew Dross.

Temperatures are expected to drop in December, according to Weather Services International, with demand for heating rising across Europe to above-season levels. In Oslo, the average temperature is forecast to drop as low as -12 degrees Celsius on December 8, which is 9 degrees below the 30-year average.

* Bloomberg Editor