Opinion – Marcos de Vasconcellos: Increase in diesel forces investors to buy pineapples and bicycle tires

Going to the supermarket is painful. Wheat, which largely comes from Eastern Europe, already takes the bread off the Brazilian table. Now, the new high in fuels hits retail hard.

The entire logistics chain is injured. Dependent on road transport, we are even presented with new uncertainties about the mobilization of truck drivers, for whom the 25% increase in the price of diesel has a profound impact. Economist André Braz, from FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas), already points to the possibility of having an inflation of 7.5% this year.

On Monday (7), three days before Petrobras announced the increases, financial institutions were forecasting the IPCA (the main measure of inflation) at 5.65% at the end of 2022 — according to the Central Bank’s Bulletin Focus. . Even if it reaches the mark predicted by Braz, we will still be 2.5 percentage points below the double-digit inflation we reached last year.

The prospect of rising fuel prices and rising inflation hits different sectors, such as retail and aviation. Via (formerly Via Varejo) — saw its share (VIIA3) drop by almost 7% from 10 am to 12:30 pm on Thursday (11) —, Gol (GOLL4) recorded a drop of more than 4% in less than half an hour.

But those who step back a little to look at the scenario sees the rise in Petrobras with the signal that the government will not interfere in prices (at least until further notice) and, in an even more panoramic view, finds opportunities such as in real estate funds (FIIs ), more specifically in the so-called “paper funds”.

These are funds that invest in real estate debt securities. Basically, they pool money from investors to buy, for example, CRIs and LCIs from different companies. And they pay back to their shareholders the amount plus interest and correction.

And therein lies the point: many of these contracts have their income linked to the IPCA. Inflation exceeds 10% in 2021, so these investors in real estate funds feel that they are getting good money for their investments (although much of it is simply monetary correction).

With the prospect of lower inflation this year, these investors are starting to feel a decrease in dividends paid (full explanation in the video below). For those looking for good alternatives, seeing the market plummet with the new rise in inflation, the nod of paper FIIs seems tempting.

And why should you look at retail stocks and such funds at the same time? The answer is precisely the decorrelation between these two assets, which is the magic word for surviving moments of crisis (and ours has been a long one).

To put it more simply: pineapples and bananas are obviously different things (especially when it comes to peeling), but in the end, they depend on land, water and fertilizers (Russian or not). Shares in Petrobras and retail companies, for example, would be different fruits, but at the end of the day, their movement depends directly on very similar variables.

In this analogy, paper real estate would be a bicycle tire. Of course, at the end of the day, it’s all about the economy, purchasing power, capital flow, etc. But the factors that directly impact the real estate credit market are different. And with expensive gasoline, more people are likely to opt for bikes, who knows

“So should I give up fruit and live on tires?” Quite the opposite. Anyone who manages to build an investment portfolio with truly uncorrelated assets only needs to calibrate here and there from time to time, without the need for major changes, even in crises.