The most favorite drink on the planet, the coffee is becoming more and more expensive. Its price has broken records and this rally does not seem to be stopping anytime soon, as analysts warn. In fact, it is possible that it may even take years for one of the world’s tradable products to recover.

The March delivery contracts of Arabica coffeeclimbed to new all-time highs of 348.35 cents per pound, the highest levels in 50 years. In fact, they have been showing since the beginning of the year an increase of 70%.

The last time the price of grain Arabicathe most popular variety in the world, was so high the 1977when snow destroyed large areas of Brazilian plantations.

The Arabica beanswhich are famous for their mild taste and sweet aroma, are the 60% to 70% of the world coffee market. They are commonly used in espresso and other coffees prepared by baristas.

Why did the price of coffee soar?

But why did the price of coffee soar? According to CNBC, the main factors are droughtthe high temperatures but also the reduced production due to increased demand.

Besides Arabica and its variety Robusta are on the rise, also in record numbers. These beans are known for their intense and bitter taste and are used to produce instant coffee.

The wild rally in coffee prices, which is considered the second most traded commodity after crude oil, comes amid concerns about the 2025 crop in Brazilthe largest producer in the world.

“The country experienced it worse drought of the past 70 years during August and September, followed by heavy rains in October, raising fears that the flowering crop could fail,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank Denmark.

For some, the bad weather conditions prevailing in Brazil mean that it can it will take a long time for coffee prices to fall.

“History shows that coffee prices will only fall when improve or offering and be replaced the stocks’ explained David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. “Crucially, this is a process that can take years, not months”he estimates himself.

It is noted that the coffee is “particularly vulnerable» on bad weather conditions. It is also the favorite drink for billions of people around the world. And demand for coffee has been boosted in recent years by growing consumption and in China.

The production, however, struggling to keep up with demand. “Like cocoa, coffee is grown in a narrow tropical zone, with major producers in Brazilthe Vietnamthe Colombia and her Ethiopia»Saxo Bank’s Hansen pointed out. “This concentration makes it particularly vulnerable to adverse weather conditions, particularly in Brazil and Vietnam, which together account for about 56% of global production.”he added.

The US Department of Agriculture said in its 6-month report last month that it expects Brazil’s coffee production for the 2024/2025 marketing season to reach 66.4 million (60 kg per bag), made up of 45.4 million bags of Arabica and 21 million bags of Robusta.

The ministry notes in the report that this forecast reflects a decrease of 5.8% from its previous forecast, attributing the decrease to irregular weather conditions that negatively affected crop growth, especially for Arabica trees.

“In Brazil, this will be the fifth consecutive Arabica bean harvest that will be disappointing due to adverse weather conditions,” Carlos Mera, head of agricultural markets at Dutch bank Rabobank, told CNBC. In fact, he does not rule out that because of this, the prices of coffee will increase even more.

Does the increase pass through to the consumer?

For coffee drinkers, analysts say it is practically inevitable that this increase does not pass into their cup. Companies should shift costs to limit the impact of high prices.

For example, the Nestléthe world’s largest coffee company, which owns leading brands including Nescafé and Nespressosaid last month that it would continue to raise prices and shrink packages to offset the impact of higher prices.