Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Bolsonaro should enter the national monthly bill, but has no plan for 2022

During the Week of the Coup Country, the politics of “the streets” and of an increasingly uncivil society faded away. No more pots, manifests, letters. The latest fiascos were the September 12 opposition protest and the “business note”.

The corpse of the demonstration scheduled for November 15 is being buried in the shallow grave of the ambitions of those who oppose the government. Jair Bolsonaro also suspended his coup rallies. Instead of “repudiation notes”, power and money elites debate whether Sergio Moro will occupy the third way or the third bank of the river.

In the absence of recent promise of a coup, almost everyone in power went to deal with life, the election, affiliations, sketching alliances and the withdrawal of public money to finance campaigns. The ministers of the Superior Electoral Court, among them three from the Supreme, said that Bolsonaro and the gang could be arrested if they barbarized the election, as in 2018. electoral.

Bolsonaro is in a mute incognito. It managed to escape part of the negative news it produced with the coup campaign, a pragmatic success of its regents of the centrão, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), president of the Chamber, and Ciro Nogueira, senator from Piauí and licensed president of the PP. The military slipped out of the disaster scenario that they helped to produce and are more disappeared than Paulo Guedes (but still with their mouths).

However, these people still don’t seem to have a clear plan. Bolsonaro should join the PL, which would then be the new party of the extreme right, the national-monthly party, leaving União Brasil (PSL plus DEM) with one of the vacancies on the extreme right. The deputy would come from the PP, but this is not right, as it is not known how the migrations of parliamentarians and other local arrangements necessary for 2022 will be, which could embezzle the Pocket Team.

Auxílio Brasil is a piece of a meager and bad electoral plan. It will benefit little more people than Bolsa Família with an income not so much higher than that of emergency aid. Another 18 million people who received emergency aid will be left with nothing.

Constant mismanagement and kicking the spending ceiling should make 2022 a year of stagnation for the economy at best. Bolsonaro-Guedes dumped the rapid decline in GDP.

Since the Coup Fatherland Week, at the beginning of September, until now, the one-year interest rate has gone from 8.5% to around 12%, a disaster for the GDP. Inflation is expected to run at around 10% a year until April, thanks in part to the Bolsocaro dollar. Even if it grows less, it will have left a huge and lasting hole in the incomes of the poorest.

Bolsonaro loses less prestige in the polls, but two-thirds of the electorate reject his re-election. There is no work to show. In 2022, you will not be able to lie that you are a liberal or launderer. In the south-central, at least two candidates will cast some of their votes. So what’s the plan? Count on the help of the elite to crush Lula (a campaign that should start soon and will be strong if the PT does not make major arrangements)?

The centronarista and others, in theory, have some time to choose a canoe. The deadline, according to political legend, is April, but the options at hand are few and so different that they will require difficult acrobatic maneuvers even for the excellent Brazilian political hack (for now, it is Lula and, perhaps, Moro) . Bolsonaro remains without a plan, which was the coup.