The international market for the second consecutive year in 2024 (-4.63%) was down for the second consecutive year, although it was more moderate than 2023 (-12.91%), according to Piraeus Bank’s newsletter.

The main reasons for the retreat are the strengthening of the dollar and the reduced global development prospects, despite the maintenance of geopolitical risk in the Middle East and Ukraine.

However, at the individual level, the image of yields on agricultural products was mixed. The older Prices in wheat (-12.18%), corn (-15.56%), soy (-22.83%), rice (-18.94%) and cotton (-15.56%) were losses. , while the fewer were recorded by prices in sugar (-6.41%). In contrast, prices were found in orange juice (+55.37%) and cattle (+15.04%), further expanding their two years.

In the last four years, the Agrotropic sector has been confronted with significant challenges (adverse weather conditions-La Niña appearance, geopolitical unrest, increased cost of agricultural production) by significantly limiting global demand.

As the Bank estimates, the challenges may continue in 2025. The second Trump election, and in particular the restoration of global trade protectionism policies, is expected to boost market uncertainty by exacerbating rising pressure on agricultural prices. While higher duties do not constitute good policy, as they are expected to carry a new wave of inflationary pressures while at the same time affecting global development and endangering the further loosening of monetary policy (Fed-EKT), their impact, according to analysts, will It depends on their size and range in critical or non -critical areas of the economy and supply chain and the extent of retaliation from other countries (eg China, Europe, Mexico, Canada). All of the above are still at a very early stage, with the market maintaining a waiting stop.

Possible compensation for the above is expected to have the dollar course, which, although dominated in 2024 and continued to be favored in the prospect of imposing duties, according to analysts, may show signs of weakening by enhancing demand, which will depend on continuing her Fed’s loose monetary policy.

At the same time, the possible retreat of the geopolitical risk is expected to limit the upward pressures of prices, as there is so far a ceasefire in the Middle East, and there may be developments for the final end of the war in Ukraine in 2025.

However, estimates for the expected reduced global growth rate in 2025 (at 3.0% from 3.2% in 2024), including China (to 4.5% from 5.0% in 2024) may limit world demand by aggravating agricultural prices. The weather is expected to be the weather as a short and weak phase of La Niña until April 2025 will be expected to be the weather. and milder in the coming months.

At a monthly level upward moved the agricultural index (+0.58%), with the index of goods, however, increasing greater (+7.53%). The potential reasons for the above differentiation may be mentioned in the evolution of data from China (increase in exports-imports), recording remarkable growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 despite maintaining the positive dynamics of the dollar. At the same time, concerns about the possible transition to La Niña, burdening crops, and the geopolitical risks, were two additional catalysts of the above differentiation, with the technical image of the index remaining relatively positive.

See here The 1st monthly agricultural price report for 2025 from Piraeus.