The volume of the services sector in Brazil contradicted analysts’ forecasts and had a drop of 0.6% in September, compared to August, informed this Friday (12) the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
It was the industry’s first casualty after five months of growth. In relation to September 2020, when the pandemic caused more restrictions to economic activities, there was an increase of 11.4%.
The results came in below market expectations. Analysts consulted by Bloomberg agency projected advance of 0.5% in the month and 13.5% in the annual comparison.
According to the IBGE, four of the five activities investigated by the survey were down in September, compared to August. The negative highlight occurred in the transport sector (-1.9%).
According to Rodrigo Lobo, manager of the IBGE survey, this result resulted from the drop in air passenger transport, due to the 28.19% rise in the price of air tickets, and the drop in road and rail freight transport.
The other activities that declined in the period were other services (-4.7%), information and communication (-0.9%) and professional, administrative and complementary services (-1.1%).
According to Lobo, inflation still does not affect the services sector as a whole, in comparison with segments such as industry and commerce.
The rise in service prices, stressed Lobo, is still lower than inflation in general and more concentrated in specific items, such as airline tickets.
However, from the resumption of services provided to families, such as bars, restaurants and hotels, the inflationary effect could affect the sector’s recovery, according to the analyst. In other words, rising prices may become a greater challenge in the coming months.
The activity of services rendered to families (1.3%) was the only one to increase from August to September, but it is still 16.2% below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020.
Companies in this segment were fully affected by restrictions in the health crisis, which made transfers to prices difficult.
The sector of services provided to families felt the impact because it brings together businesses that depend on the movement of people and direct contact with customers.
With the vaccination against Covid-19, restrictions have been reduced, and these companies are encouraged. The possibility of higher demand could also result in higher inflation.
“Inflationary pressure may bring some kind of negative consequence to services provided to families,” said Lobo.
According to the IBGE, even with the fall in September, the service sector as a whole still accumulates an increase of 11.4% this year. In the 12-month period, the advance is 6.8%.
The sector is 3.7% above the pre-pandemic level of February last year. In August 2021, the difference compared to the pre-crisis was greater, 4.3%.
According to Lobo, the recent sequence of hikes ended up raising the basis of comparison, which also helps to explain the loss of rhythm in part of the activities in September.
Austin Rating’s chief economist, Alex Agostini, acknowledges that the performance of services has disappointed in the ninth month of this year, but he still doesn’t see a major reversal in the scenario for the sector.
According to him, the volume of services has room to grow again until the end of the year, in the wake of vaccination against Covid-19, but at a lower level than expected before.
Now, Agostini projects a 10.9% increase in volume in 2021. Before the release of the September result, the forecast was 11.2% higher.
“The service sector is able to grow again, with the advance of vaccination, but at a slower pace, due to the increase in costs”, says Agostini.
“With higher prices, the trend is for fewer people going to places like cinema and theater. Therefore, the growth rate is lower.”
The index of tourist activities, in turn, increased 0.8% in the country in September, compared to August, informed the IBGE this Friday. It was the fifth positive rate in a row, and the accumulated gain in the period reached 49.9%.
Despite the result, the tourism segment is still 20.4% below the level of February last year.
with Reuters
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