(News Bulletin 247) – This article, with open access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team at News Bulletin 247. To ensure you don’t miss any opportunities, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.
Towed by Kering, but weighted by BNP-Paribas, the CAC 40 traced a star of indecision on Monday, in the immediate vicinity of its historical records, which came close during the session.
On the geopolitical level, the market was reassured by “the signals of a renewed dialogue between Washington and Beijing. Donald Trump confirmed a meeting with Xi Jinping in two weeks, while China seeks to consolidate its growth trajectory after a third quarter GDP slightly below 5%. The 4th plenum of the Communist Party, which opens today, could give new impetus to activity, in particular through increased support for domestic demand”, explains Romane Ballin, bond manager at Auris Gestion.
“This calmer climate has favored a tightening of the OAT-Bund spread, now around 78 basis points, while the surprise downgrading of the French rating by S&P (from AA- to A+) has only had a limited impact. Caution, however, remains in order: the adoption of the 2026 budget could prove delicate.”
The agency estimates that political uncertainty will weigh down both French growth and the recovery trajectory of France’s public finances.
“The CAC40 was not very sensitive to this new deterioration and even progressed in the first hours of trading of the day, still driven by the rebound in luxury values and by the slight relaxation of Donald Trump’s remarks towards China, the American president indicating at the end of last week that he still wanted to meet his Chinese counterpart in South Korea in a few days”, deciphers Alexandre Baradez, of IG Markets.
In terms of values, BNP Paribas lost 7.7% due to a dispute over its activities in Sudan. This following a conviction by a jury on Friday in this case. This verdict requires the bank to pay more than $20 million to three plaintiffs. Conversely, Kering gained 4.8% after announcing an agreement to sell its “beauty” division to L’Oréal for 4 billion euros. This will allow the luxury group to reduce debt while L’Oréal (+1.2%) will strengthen its position in the vigorously growing perfume and beauty products segment.
Excluding CAC 40, Forvia (formerly Faurecia) fell 4.5% after delivering its third quarter sales. The stock was especially weighed down by management’s cautious tone regarding the Nexperia issue, which risks creating semiconductor supply shortages.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the loan losses of two regional banks do not shake the trend in the slightest, and this on all equity indices, like the Dow Jones (+1.12%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.37%). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.07% to 6,735 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 this morning
> On the foreign exchange market the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.1630.
> The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $56.80.
> THE Treasuries 10 years, yield on federal sovereign bonds maturing in 10 years, were trading slightly above the 3.97%.
> As for the VIX, it was worth 18.23 at the last close of the S&P500.
On the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, priority will be given to a speech by Ms. Lagarde, President of the ECB at 1:00 p.m., as part of a climate conference at the Bank of Norway.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The flagship tricolor index is now moving in a range between 7,940 and the historic highs at 8,260 points, in volatility, with the formation of gaps and volumes which blur the technical message in the short term. The opinion will remain neutral as long as the 8,000 symbolic points do not play a serious role in graphic support. This role is questioned.
FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that crossing 8260.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 8000.00 points would restart the selling pressure.
News Bulletin 247 advice
Hourly graph
Daily Data Chart
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
