Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Bolsonaro’s package does not put R$ 150 billion in the economy

“In an election year, government package injects R$ 150 billion into the economy”, people read and heard this Thursday afternoon (17). It was the news of the announcement of the “Income and Opportunity Program”, by Jair Bolsonaro.

It’s waterfall.

It’s government propaganda, which adds up to a roll of miscellaneous money. It can even ease the hardships of a lot of people, for a little while, maybe long enough to earn some poll points or votes. That’s if the crisis train that comes in the opposite direction doesn’t run over the lives of these people even more.

Who’s doing the math “inflation sucks so many billions out of the economy”? The average real wage is expected to fall again this year, all the more so the worse the effects of the world crisis caused by the war and the interest rate crunch were.

The “R$ 150 billion package” mixes oranges with old jackfruit, credit with new money and mere anticipation of funds.

The government will allow withdrawals of up to R$ 1 thousand in the FGTS. In the official estimate, R$ 30 billion would come out. Given the desperation of the little people, it is quite possible that the estimate is not an exaggeration.

For the third consecutive year, the payment of the 13th of the INSS benefits will be anticipated (the advantage here is to receive the money before the end of the year, earning, I don’t know, about 3% of the inflation that would eat the benefit).

In addition to being anticipation, it is repeated measurement. It was already in the account of “injections” of money into the economy.

There were changes in payroll loans. More people will be able to commit more of their income to this type of loan. how many people? How much money? In what time frame? It is a credit, not an income transfer. The creature has to know it has credit, it has to think about whether it wants to or can take the credit, it has to manage to take the credit.

Around R$ 77 billion would come, guessed the government. Who knows if the sum of the loans will reach that much. Arriving or not, the debtor has to pay part of what he received, with interest.

Will there be any anticipation of consumption? It certainly will. How much? Could it be that the more enterprising little people even set up a little business with the money? Most likely. But part of this will be mere anabolic steroids, which will leave many small people more indebted (the consignment will be paid, with “discount at source”, but the bill hanging in the shop can be left for later, as well as the debt with the neighbor) .

The government will certainly not stop there. It will find a way to “inject” more money into someone’s pocket, at least say you tried. As is known, the government will fail to collect around R$ 19 billion in PIS/Cofins on fuel. Even if it does not arrive at the pump or lowers the price of goods affected by diesel, for example, it is a form of expense. More deficit, by the way.

At the beginning of March, the government decreed a reduction in the IPI, which should “inject” from R$ 6 billion to R$ 7 billion into the economy, who knows who’s pocket. In theory, it should make appliances cheaper, but the discount can be with manufacturers or resellers, depending on the state and type of demand and competition. Government personnel are already studying another round of IPI reductions (but they need to decide how the subsidy will be for personnel in the Manaus Free Trade Zone).

Bolsonaro and his regent and accomplice Arthur Lira (PP-AL), mayor, did not give up on the price of gasoline. It will not be a general subsidy, but Lira needs to advertise and Bolsonaro needs to satisfy his driver and motorcyclist bases.

A refinancing of small business debts is still being studied, in addition to the new round of credit guaranteed (and therefore subsidized) by the government, Pronampe. The idea is to buy points in surveys.