The Bank of Greece is foreseen to decline in inflation in Greece in the next two years.

In the Inflation Monitor, IT provides that inflation (harmonized consumer price index) will retreat this year at 2.5% from 3% in 2024while further declining it at 2.2% in 2026. This development is attributed to the sharp decline in energy prices, but also to the decline in prices of basic goods as well as food.

The analysis concludes that by the end of 2026, inflation will converge towards the 2%threshold, but will remain slightly above it. However, 2027 is expected to increase inflation based on ETK at 2.5%. The core of inflation (structural inflation) is expected to decline in 2024, ending to 2.2% in 2027, mainly reflecting the reduction in inflation of non -energy industrial goods and to a lesser extent inflation of services.

It is recalled that inflation -based inflation increased to 3.1% in January 2025 from 2.9% in December 2024, as increases in individual markers of non -processed foods and energy were partially offset by decrease in inflation of non -inflation Energy Industrial Goods. The core of inflation remained stable at 4.4%. However, it is found that structural inflation in Greece continues to have a significant positive difference of 1.7 percentage points compared to the euro area.

Developments on the inflation front are also expected to be concerned with the next meeting of the ECB’s Board of Directors on March 6, in the light of the macro -forecasts available to the Central Bank.

Already on January 30, 2025, the ECB’s Board of Directors decided to reduce ECB’s three main interest rates by 25 basis pointswith the Facility Facility Facility (DFR) at 2.75% from 3% previously. This decision reflected ECB estimates – according to the rationale of the decision published then – that the process of deflation (reduction of the general consumer price index) is on the right track, with most of the underlying inflation to indicate that inflation would It is about 2%, which is the target, on a sustainable basis.

It is recalled that in comparison to September 2024 forecasts, the prospects for total inflation based on ETK reviewed In December downwards For 2024 and 2025, mainly due to the lowest assumptions for oil and electricity prices, and the downward revisions of wage prospects. On the contrary, there is an upward revision of food inflation.

According to market estimates, as stated in the bulletin, the ECB is expected to further reduce by 75 base points (0.75%) its basics interest rates within 2025 at 2%. It is noted that about a month ago the estimates were more restrained, predicting that in 2025 the reduction of interest rates would reach 50 basis points (0.5%).