The Greek economy enters the microscope of the ratings houses, as the first ratings for 2025 begin. In 2024 it was closed with the upgrading of the country’s credit rating to a higher position within the investment grade by Scope.

The Ministry of Finance estimates that 2025 will be the year of new upgrades, due to the continuation of the strong growth performance of the economy, the seamless absorption of the resources of the recovery fund and the reforms it entails, as well as the high primary surpluses recorded by the budget.

The “dance” of the evaluations will open to March 7the Canadian House DBRSwho had upgraded the prospects of the economy from “fixed” to “positive” last September. Recently, the house in his analysis emphasized that the Greek economy has shown remarkable durability despite multiple shocks (pandemic, energy crisis) and remains on the path of sustainable development.

DBRS gave Greece the tier In September of 2023 (BBB with a constant voltage) and in September of 2024 It upgraded the trend to a positive one, creating expectations for a new upgrade of the Greek honored this year. If this does not come in March, there will be another possibility with the new rating of the house on September 5th.

It will be followed, a week later, on March 14, Moody’s, who upgraded the prospects of the Greek economy from “fixed” to “positive” in September.

THE Moody’s is the only one of the five -recognized ECB houseswho has not yet given the investment level in Greecebut this year this may be the year that will happen, as its evaluation is a step below (BA1) and last September revised the prospects to positive. Moody’s second evaluation will take place this year on September 19th.

Moody’s Evaluation House last September revised in positive The prospect of the country’s credit rating (BA1), pointing out the best of the budget execution and the improvement of the banking sector.

April 18 will be the turn of Standard & Poor’s to announce her own evaluation.

Greek bonds

2024 was a turning point for Greek bonds as there was higher Demand by foreign investmentIn fact, even from investors who have been buying Greek securities for more than 10 years.

According to Riccardo Abbona, Managing Director Head of DCM & Risk Solutions, Greece & Italy – Barclays, the new composition of the investment base was also confirmed by the addition of 26 new accounts to the list of top -50 investors for Greek bonds of 2024.

In 2024, Greece/ODIX, given the achievement of 2023 investment grade, has made two very successful new reference versions of 10 and 30 years. Through these two bonds, Greece raised € 4 billion and € 3 billion respectively, a record amount in terms of the amounts issued and at the same time expanded the basis of real money investors by 30%, having reached a new record in the size of the books and the quality of the orders, the quality of the orders. According to Alpha Bank, the index of Greek government bonds recorded in 2024 the second largest overall performance (after Italy) between the eurozone countries.

There are several catalysts that could maintain the positive course of Greek bonds in 2025. In principle, the supportive macroeconomic environment, with the ongoing continuing fiscal overdose, reinforces the scope for further upgrades of Greek debt evaluation.

Early public debt repayment policy will continue in 2025. The government will proceed with the early € 5 billion loan from Greek loan facility loans that would mature between 2033 and 2042.

According to forecasts, public debt from 163.9% of GDP at the end of 2023 is estimated to be reduced to 154% of GDP at the end of 2024, to further limit 147.5% of GDP at the end of 2025. 2029.

In 2025 Moody’s is expected to upgrade the country to an investment level, which will maintain demand for Greek bondsaccording to Alpha Bank analysts.

Wood in a recent analysis considers that Greek bonds are “unjust”, based on the strong story of the Greek economy. The “Taurus” for Greek bonds is said by the Swiss House UBS and “sees” upgrading to an investment level from Moody΄s. He stresses that Greek bonds are a purchase opportunity.