The aggressive commercial policy adopted by US President Donald Trump is pushing the planet to a road to slower growth and higher inflation, while the situation could further worsen if commercial tensions are escalating, OECD warns in the intermediary.

Therefore, he pissed his predictions to the rate of growth of the world economy from 3.3% expected in December at 3.1% for this year And at 3% for the following year, pointing out that duties restrict trade and growing uncertainty freezes business investment and affects consumer spending, undermining progress made in terms of growth and reducing inflation.

Countries that estimate will show the most intense deceleration are those currently located In the eye of the “commercial cyclone” that trumped Trump. More specifically, it predicts that the rate of growth of GDP Canada It will be reduced to 0.7% this year, ie 1.3% lower than expected in December 2024, while “seeing” the Mexico To enter a recession, with its economy shrinking by 1.3% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026.

At the same time, he cuts his prediction for growth in the US, considering that US economy will “brake” at 2.2% this yearfrom 2.5% expected in December, and 1.6% from 2.1% previously the following year, which is the slowest growth rate since 2011, with the exception of a blow in 2020 due to the pandemic.

The Agency also warns that the ejecting of commercial costs, due to duties, will feed inflation, forcing central banks to maintain their restrictive policies For a longer period of time as prices will remain higher than the goals set by engraving for 2026.

As he notes, inflationary pressures continue to insist on many economies, with prices again increasing in several of them. In particular, he states that inflation in the prices of services remained increased, formed average at 3.6% in January 2025 In the OECD economies, while other indicators in various countries, such as Germany and the United Kingdom, show prices, where PMI prices (PMI) have increased compared to December 2024.

In addition, he notes that inflation of goods has recently increased in several economies, with a more apparent increase being recorded in Japan, Spain and Korea, mainly due to rising food prices.

The OECD warns at the same time that the situation could deteriorate if Donald Trump implements all his threats, that is, it imposes mutual duties on all the goods introduced by the US from third countries.

As he explains, his existing forecasts take into account Only the duties that have already imposed The US and China, the 25% duties imposed by Washington on steel and aluminum imports, as well as on the estimate of 25% duty expansion to all Canadian and Mexican products and equivalent retaliation of these countries. That is, they do not include Trump’s threat of imposing mutual duties in all countries with which the US has been in commercial relations since April 2.

Indicatively OECD notes that the imposition of duties of 10% In all the imports made by the US and a similar response from all their commercial partners, could cut by about 0.3% of world GDP in a three -yearadding that the US would also receive a “significant blow”, with US production declining by 0.7% over the same period and inflation increasing on average by approximately 0.7% per year.

According to the Organization, at present, the immediate impact of trade wars are fewer for European economies, but it has reached a new reduction in its forecasts for Epirus by 0.3% both the current and the following year to reflect the impact of uncertainty.

In particular, the OECD estimates that The eurozone will grow by 1% this year and by 1.2% in 2026, with inflation booming marginally by 0.1% to 2.2% this year and the next one standing at 2%, cutting forecasts for the two largest bloc economies. Specifically, it now expects 0.4% of Germany’s GDP this year, compared to 0.7%, according to previous forecasts, and 0.8% for France, down 0.1 to the percentage percentage.

For the JapanOECD expects a 1.1% growth (-0.4 of the percentage percentage), while growth in China It provides as it will be 4.8% in 2025, almost unchanged compared to December (+0.1) forecasts, but will slow in 2026 to 4.4%.