Itaú forecasts new revision for inflation projection for 2021


After the October inflation result well above economists’ estimates, a new round of revisions to the market projections for the closed price index for 2021 should take place in the coming weeks.

Itaú’s chief economist, Mário Mesquita, said this Friday (12) that the bank will probably revise its projection for inflation for 2021 again.

At the end of October, the bank had already revised, from 8.7% to 9%, the estimate for the IPCA (Extended National Consumer Price Index) this year. For 2022, the projection was from 4.2% to 4.3%.

“Given the stage we are at, towards the end of the year, it is quite possible that this inflationary surprise will lead us to revise our inflation projection for 2021 upwards,” said Mesquita, during a press conference.

The bank had a forecast of 1.04% measured by the IPCA in October, compared to the result of 1.25% released by the IBGE, the highest monthly rate for the period since 2002. In 12 months, inflation reached 10.67% .

He added that the revision for this year’s inflation could also lead to changes in the bank’s forecasts for the 2022 IPCA, as well as for the benchmark interest rate.

The bank’s current forecast points to a Selic rate of 11.25% in the first quarter of 2022, which should lead to a recession in the local economy next year, according to specialists’ calculations.

The economist also stated that the global scenario should be marked by a reduction in stimulus in the United States, with two, or maybe even three interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the American central bank, until the middle of next year.


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