The assessment that the capabilities given by technological evolution will increase the world productivity At levels that will cancel the impact of the US government’s duties, the Roubini Macro Associates, Nurel Rubini’s internationally renowned CEO of the 10th Delphi Economic Forum, which takes place in Delphi, April 9, April 12, during the 10th Delphi Economic Forum,Do trade wars supply the next crisis?“

“I am naturally pessimistic because there is a change in the world order. We are led to a period of global instability“He said. “There are significant risks, the” megathreats “I wrote two years ago. But the good thing is that we are on the limit of a technological revolution we have never seen in history“

As he explained, this revolution will lead to a huge increase in productivity, which in turn will lead In an increase in world GDP which will touch the 200 basis points. On the other hand, according to Mr Rubini, the impact of the duties will lead to a reduction in GDP by 50 basis points.

“The ratio is 4 to 1. My message is in the medium term that technology will cancel duties“He said, rejecting Wall Street forecasts for recession in the US economy. As he said later, we are not necessarily there, especially if there is a decline in tension with the most commercial partners.

He then warned that if the US-China conflict was further escalated, then the two economies will be slowed down to grow, which will have a global impact. Referring to China’s policy, he noted that it is causing problems not only in the US, but also in much of the world south and in countries such as India, South Africa and Brazil that are protesting about Dumping practices followed by Beijing. “China has to take these concerns seriously and understand that it must consume more and save less,” he said, adding that “these imbalances are becoming a problem for the whole world and China has not yet understood it.” Regarding the decisions of central banks, he predicted that the Fed would keep a stand -up, while the ECB would reduce interest rates more than initially estimated, finally reaching 1.5%.

“Europe must negotiate a decline. I don’t like the word retaliation“Said Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, Portugal Minister of Finance. Recognizing that Trump ‘needs to appear as a winner“, The EU proposed Reduce the trade surplus it maintains with the US by increasing the US military equipment and energy market. “I believe that Europe must increase defense spending to reduce the US trade surplus and in the medium term to develop its own defense industry. Portugal has for years argued that we have to focus on the development of the Navy and Aviation to enhance Europe’s defense capacity, while in the medium term it creates a strong defense industry. ” Finally, he argued that Trump’s motives are mainly political and are linked to the worries about industrial production in the US and the security of his country.

The need for US-China cooperation not only in the financial sector but on all issues that concern the world community was underlined by the Henry Huiyao WangFounder and president of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) – Former Councilor of the State Council of China. “It is wrong that President Trump’s war against everyone is disturbing the global system,” he said, adding that “the world needs China and the US to work together. If President Trump wants to stay in history as a leader who promotes peace, he needs China’s help. It is silly for the two largest economies to quarrel without reason and behave like young children. ” He also said that as China improves its relations with countries such as India, Japan and South Korea, we are “led to the next stage of globalization”.

The assessment that the Fed will not immediately make a decision to reduce interest rates, said Dame Deanne Julius, a founding member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England. “I believe that central banks are anxious about their credibility and cannot let inflation escape,” he said, adding that “we do not know where we will drive with these duties and unemployment in the US is low. It is clear that the Fed should wait at least six months before making a decision, ”he concluded.

The discussion was co -ordinated by Paul Taylor, Senior Fellow, Friends of Europe, columnistThe Guardian.