By Vangelis Dourakis

Overturn to the original plans of the European Central Bank is brought by the trade war that broke out with responsibility Trump: After six euro’s basic interest rates from last June, the ECB leader Christine Lagarde He was ready to put a “brake” on this course. However, the US president – according to financial analysts – is forcing her to change her mind and open a “window” to another reduction in interest rates.

Another “scissors” of interest rates since June will make the cost of borrowing in Europe even cheaper and of course in Greece, with the scales now tilting in this direction, according to analysts and markets.

Why is he thinking of another interest rate decrease or ECB

If the new reduction in Euro -houses is actually decided at today’s ECB meeting, this will be the seventh after June 2024 – and the sixth consecutive – with the ECB’s deposit rate shrinking to 2.25%.

The new order of things in the world trade promoted by America has changed the macroeconomic prospects, based on which monetary policy decisions are taken, and in particular the prospects for growth.

EKT predicted in early March, taking into account only the impact from the US-China trade war, a anemic recovery of the eurozone economy, its class 0.9%.

Following the announcement of reciprocal duties, height 20% For most imports from European Union countries, the prospects for growth worsened, despite their reduction in 10% for a period of 90 days.

This is because the purpose may be to reach an agreement through negotiations by EU trade officials. With their American counterparts, but what their outcome will be unable to discount.

Which data has changed after Trump decisions

After all, the export The US has been negatively affected, as the few 10% duties are already in place, as are the 25% sector duties announced last month for steel, aluminum and cars. The landscape, therefore, for European businesses is already very different from the previous commercial regime.

In addition, the uncertainty For commercial policy it shakes the business climate and leads to investment suspension until the landscape is clarified.

Consequently, the risk of deteriorating already low prospects in Europe is more than visible.

According to economic analysts, the negative consequences of duties will be greater than the positives of Germany’s shift in increasing public spending, with € 500 billion in infrastructure at a depth of 10 years and a large increase in its defense spending.

The faster reduction in the ECB’s interest rates will, with this data, be given the possibility of a support to the European economy, as inflation is already moving in accordance with the targets set.

According to Eurostat, inflation in the eurozone declined March in 2.2% and moves close to his target 2%while it is important that inflation in the service sector has also been reduced.

The great appreciation of the euro against the dollar In the last two months, due to Trump’s tariff policy, it further facilitates the reduction of inflation, as does the abrupt Reduction to oil priceswith Brent receding up to $ 60-65 a barrel.

On the other hand, inflation could move upward if the EU Answer with duties on US products, but which is not foreseen before there is a picture of the US negotiations. In any case, the picture that exists is that Inflation will not be derailed by its purpose.