“Great turmoil for the European Union”? Europeans will become poorer than the trade war that Donald Trump, inspirer of the United States duties, – – however, bloc politicians see an avant -garde for the Union, Politico reports.

Economically, the world is divided into three separate blocks And there is a struggle between the US, China and Europe. Thus, Trump’s decision to confront the rest of the world in a trade war – with special punishment for the enemy No. 1 China – leaves the European Union an opportunity.

After all, as anyone who has ever played Mario Kart knows, even if you are the last, you can reach the first place if the two players start “put them” in front of you.

There is a lot to do. Europe came out of the pandemic in poor condition – with average growth just half of America. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, saw a factor -closing wave as steelmakers and car factories collapsed at the expense of an energy shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Theoretically, the EU’s single market allowed companies easy access to the nearly 450 million bloc consumers. In practice, it remained fragmented, with its policy -making and atherosclerotic policy.

However, Trump’s arrival at the White House, and in particular the tariff package of “Liberation Day” on April 2 – which introduced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% in almost every other country in the world (and since then suspended) – may start to change all of them.

The euro has increased by 10% compared to the dollar this year, as investors are negotiating the US currency for more stable alternatives.

More impressive are the moves in marketable public debt, known as bonds. Traditionally a safe investment in periods of instability, traders actually sold US debt during the panic that followed the announcement of Trump’s duties, increasing the cost of lending to the federal government. Investors fled In European bonds looking for security.

A forecast by the International Monetary Fund reduced US growth prospects for 2025 by 0.9% due to duties – the largest percentage of any major economy other than Mexico. China’s prospects were down 0.6%, while the eurozone came out relatively uninvited, with a revision of only 0.2 percentage points.

The last one is first set up

As the block of 27 countries had been facing difficulties over the last decade, America was “born” of new technological giants at a rate that Europe could only dream of, benefiting from a magical combination of well -known financial markets, leading research universities. China – which for a long time It was the international “Katergos” – It began to dominate the pioneering clean energy industries, electric vehicles and robotics thanks to its industrial policy.

And while all this is still in force, the decisions of this month – with Washington and Beijing imposing reciprocal duties with rates exceeding 100% – leave Europe in an ideal position.

US duties to European imports, though higher than before, are not even intellectual close to the levels between America and China, which are coming as the Asian economy recovers from the controlled … demolition of its real estate sector and attempts a painful restructuring to more domestic consumption.

The Trump government said it was hoping to reach an agreement with Beijing to reduce duties, but in the meantime, trade routes to the Pacific have declined sharply, predicting deficiencies on supermarket shelves. And the constant controversy – with Chinese officials even denying that talks are being held – have undermined long -term credibility regardless of what will happen.

There is also the whole rest of the world that, thanks to the US leadership, had largely believed in free trade as a source of prosperity and now sees its biggest supporter turning his back. This leaves Europe the opportunity to take over the reins.

It is a point that does not escape from Commission President Ursula von der Laien, who in comments on Politico, without nameing the US president, has criticized the chaos following the Trump government.

“In an increasingly unpredictable world environment, countries seek to work with us.”he said.

Using the judgment

But many depend on Europe’s ability to continue to market freely with the rest of the world, economist Paul de Graui said. “If we manage to do this, the US will be a secluded stronghold of protectionism … that will lead to ineffectiveness and high prices for industrial products.”

“Usually, what happens when you have a crisis is that it creates opportunities”, he said. “If you find it early enough and take advantage of it, you can turn the crisis into something that in the end It has favorable results. “

Free trade agreements are, however, difficult. Talks on the Mercosur Free Trade Agreement between Europe and South America began in 1999 and a political agreement was signed only in December. France was delayed, but even there, the Trump phenomenon erodes the resistance. The EU is in talks with India, with the Commission seeking to complete them by the end of the year.

There are other, more subtle opportunities.

The US dollar enjoys the regime of the de facto world currency. Central banks keep it in their reserves and world trade – even between two non -American parties – often in dollars. This gives the US a huge geopolitical influence, reduces their borrowing costs and gives US consumers access to cheap international goods.

There are important people in the Trump government who question whether the special dollar regime is ultimately so good, due to a series of rather complicated reasons that have to do with how the dollar affects the share of domestic manufacturing. It is not known to what extent Trump himself knows or is interested in them.

What is certain is that the dollar looked unstable after April 2nd. The euro provides an obvious alternative.

‘The world is facing a Crisis of trust in the dollar, As the effects of ” Day of Liberation ” continue to be felt ‘, Deutsche Bank chief economist David Falkerts-Landau in a note to the bank’s customers. He called Trump duties the “biggest shock for the global financial and commercial system” since 1971, when people finally abandoned the gold rule.

Transition to the euro

The EU, despite all its deficiencies, continues to support the rule of law – something that critics claim to be less and less for the US amid rapid deportations to authoritarian allies and efforts to dismiss its previously independent government agencies.

And unlike China, the block allows free flow of funds inside and outside its borders, a prerequisite for the widespread acceptance of its currency. Investors want large and open economies to use their coins, operate and invest in their investment.

So far, no one believes that the euro will replace one at once the dollar. The share of the currency in global foreign exchange reserves has generally remained stable at about 20% since its launch in 1999. But, as Nicolas Veron of the Bruegel thought tank said, recent events “have made people think”.

“If confidence in the dollar collapses, where do people resort?” Veron asked. ‘The euro is at the center of If you ask this question. “

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently told EU leaders not to miss the opportunity offered by the crisis and to proceed with reforms in the banks and financial markets in Europe, which could make the block a more attractive destination. If the euro manages to get at least part of the market from the dollar, it could reduce the cost of borrowing for European businesses, which could benefit the critical sector of newly established businesses. It would also give Europe greater leverage in a moment of growing geopolitical competition.

There are a lot that can go wrong. The duties, undoubtedly, will harm European growth. If Trump leads the world economy to a complete recession, there is always the risk that investors will resort to their traditional secure shelter – US assets instead of Europe. This happened during the 2007 financial crisis, despite the collapse of the US mortgage market.

Any advantages also depend on whether Brussels will play their papers properly. Washington will almost certainly try to intimidate Europe to stop its own ties with China and work with the US, and then any trade advantages will disappear.

Finally, it can be shown that the wider acceptance of the euro is as double -edged as those in Trump’s camp claim. It would definitely reinforce the currency, and that hurts exports at a time when Germany, which focuses on exports, it is already difficult.

However, compared to the launch of von der Der Lien last year, competition seems a little less one -sided. And in a football match there is something very satisfying in seeing your opponents putting an own goal.