Economy

Why the dollar falls in 2022, Russian economy sinks with war and what matters in the market

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Itaúsa and Votorantim make an offer for a stake in CCR

Votorantim and Itaúsa formalized this Wednesday (23) a proposal to BRL 4.1 billion to buy Andrade Gutierrez’s stake in 14.9% in the CCR.

The business: the offer has already been accepted by Andrade Gutierrez. It involves 300.15 million shares, at R$ 13.75 each, with a premium of 5% on the closing of CCR’s shares this Wednesday.

Considering the 5.8% interest in CCR that Votorantim already has, it and Itaúsa will each have around 10.3% of CCR’s capital at the end of the transaction. The negotiation was first reported by the Brazil Journal.

Try again: this is not the first agreement that Andrade Gutierrez has made to sell its stake in CCR. Last year, it came to advance with a deal worth R$ 4.6 billion with the IG4 Capital fund, but the agreement was not materialized.

Who is who:

  • CCR: the group manages thousands of kilometers of highways across the country, in addition to airports in Brazil and abroad. In October of last year, it renewed its concession from Presidente Dutra for 30 years, winning the auction with a grant of R$ 1.77 billion.
  • Itaúsa: the holding company is Itaú’s largest shareholder. The company also has stakes in companies such as Alpargatas (from the Havaianas brand) and XP. This Wednesday, it announced that it had sold BRL 1.8 billion in brokerage shares.
  • Votorantim: the holding has stakes in companies in the financial, building materials, aluminum, energy, mining, etc.

What pulls the dollar down

On a downhill slope this year, the dollar fell 1.44% this Wednesday (23), the BRL 4.84. It is the lowest value of the currency since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020.

in numbers: in relation to 23 other emerging currencies, the real is the one that appreciated the most in 2022, with a return in sight of 15.2%according to Bloomberg data.

What explains: the dollar exchange rate is influenced by many variables, which is why it is difficult to predict – for those who have a trip planned​, economists recommend the “average price” tactic.

But three main factors help to illustrate the current appreciation of the real:

1 – High in commodities: the country is a major exporter of basic materials such as oil, ore, grains and meat.

2 – Attractive real interest: calculated by the difference between the Selic rate and inflation projections, they attract foreign capital.

  • In the “carry trade”, investors take credit at lower rates abroad to invest these resources in Brazil, where there is greater potential for returns.

3 – “Cheap” Assets: while the American indices closed 2021 with double-digit returns, the Brazilian stock exchange suffered a fall of 12%.

The day at the markets: oil had another high session and was advancing 5.14%a US$ 121.42 (R$ 591.29), at the beginning of the night, with investors attentive to the restriction of supply with the continuation of the war.

The Ibovespa closed higher by 0.16%to 117,457 points, in another day of prominence for companies dependent on the local economy, in the case of retailers and developers.


Russian economy will go back 15 years

The first calculations about the economic losses that will be borne by Russia as a result of the conflict in Ukraine are beginning to appear.

In an “optimistic” estimate by the International Institute of Finance (IIF), the forecast is for a fall of 15% in this year’s GDP and the decline of other 3% in 2023. The downturn in this biennium will bring the size of the Russian economy back to the level of 15 years ago.

Understand: the projection is considered optimistic because the conflict is likely to be prolonged, and sanctions –from countries and companies– may increase.

More numbers: with the devaluation of the ruble and soaring inflation, domestic consumption should fall 24% only in the second trimester. Exports are expected to plummet 30%and imports, 34%.

brain drain: if in the short term the damage is already done, the country also adds structural losses that should harm productivity and growth over time.

According to the IIF, observers estimate that around 200,000 to 300,000 people have left Russia in the past three and a half weeks. The movement adds to the flight of Russians that intensified after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.


Big techs and fintechs: more benefits or risks?

Big techs and fintechs generate benefits for customers, such as financial inclusion and cost reduction, but their advancement can also bring risks to consumer protection.

This is what a report released on Monday (21) points out by the Financial Stability Council, an international body that monitors and makes recommendations on the global financial system.

Understand: the document draws attention to the advancement of large technology companies in the financial sector. Among the risks listed by the agency:

  • Complexity and lack of transparency of the related activities of these companies.
  • Damage to consumer protection due to greater dependence on technology and data protection.
  • Limited number of service providers in certain operating segments.

Boom in the pandemic: the share of digital wallet transactions in global e-commerce grew from 6.5% in 2019 to 44.5% in 2020.

In Brazilstage of an increasingly fierce battle between banks and fintechs, the population’s access to credit cards rose from 43% to 51% of the total population between 2008-2009 and 2017-2018.

The study is by Zetta, which represents some of the largest fintechs in the country and argues that the advance was due to the competitiveness generated by newcomers, with their fee-free cards.


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