The upgrading of the prospects of the Greek economy to “positive” from “stable” was proceeded by Fitch evaluation house on Friday, maintaining the long-term credit rating of the Greek economy in the “BBB-“, which is the lowest step of the house scale.

Upgrading the prospects of the Greek economy suggests that the house leaves open the possibility of upgrading the country’s dealers within the next 12 to 18 months.

It is noted that last year the firm had not upgraded the evaluation or prospects for the Greek economy.

It is recalled that the same investment level with “fixed perspectives” gave Greece and the house Moody’sin March, while DBRS, like S&P Global, evaluate it a step higher on the BBB.

Surplus

The house speaks in its report of a large surplus of the budget. In particular, he notes, Greece recorded a budget surplus of 1.3%of GDP in 2024 and a 4.8%primary budget surplus, with the latter exceeding the government’s original target for 1%. This result is better than the expectations of the house, Fitch notes and marks a remarkable improvement from the 1.4% deficit in 2023. According to Fitch, over -performance reflects structural fiscal improvements, especially the better tax collection due to tax measures. Given this strong starting position, Fitch provides for budget surpluses in 2025 and 2026, although below 1%.

Significant reduction in public debt

At the same time, he speaks of a significant decline in public debt. As he notes, the budget surplus and real GDP increase by 2.3% led to a reduction in general government’s debt to GDP by 10 percentage points in 2024 to 154%. Although it is still almost three times higher than the average debt of 52% in countries classified in the BBB level, it is over 50 percentage points lower than the 209% level in 2020. According to Fitch, Greece has achieved the largest post -post -debt reduction between countries. Also, cash reserves are high, around € 36 billion (16% of GDP). The house expects that the rapid debt reduction will continue in the medium term, with debt to GDP reaching 120% by 2030 according to its main scenario.

Prudent and reliable budgetary framework

The house notes that the budgetary results of 2024 emphasize the government’s strong commitment to fiscal prudence. The latest official budgetary forecast, the briefing of the mid -term budget plan of May 2025, is fully aligned with the new EU budgetary framework.

At the same time, he adds that the cumulative rate of primary net expenses for the years 2024-2025, the new basic budgetary variable, was revised down 4.2% of the original target of 6.5%.

Fitch notes that the government’s commitment to small budget deficits and a steady decline in debt/GDP is particularly reliable, backed by the history of the post -regional period.

Limited risks of expenditure

In addition, he points out the strong public support enjoyed by the New Democracy government after the 2023 elections. However, he stresses that slow progress in investigating the serious Railway accident of Tempi has led to a new wave of public demonstrations in early 2025.

The house notes that in addition to the immediate political impacts, public discontent could put more pressure on the government to relax its fiscal stance more significantly.

On the other hand, he notes that Greece historically had higher defense spending than most EU countries, close to 3% of GDP, according to NATO’s target. Consequently, it will receive less pressure to increase these costs, which further limits the medium -term fiscal risks.

Resistant economic growth

Fitch places particular emphasis on the country’s durable economic growth, which ran at a rate of 2.3% in 2024, that is, at the same rate as in 2023, thanks to domestic demand.

As he points out, household consumption was backed by the increase in real income and increased employment, while the strong increase in investment continued, partly due to stimulation of the grants and loans of the Next Generation. Net exports had a slight negative contribution to growth, mainly due to the higher introductory content of investment.

However, the house predicts that growth will remain above 2% in 2025 and 2026, well above its provision for 0.4% growth in the eurozone. He notes that the immediate risks to Greece from the World Trade War are small, as exports to the US account for only 4% of total exports, well below the EU average. Nevertheless, a more serious shock to the major EU economies could have significant negative impacts in Greece.

It is noted that in two weeks, on May 30, follows the evaluation of the Scope, which completes the “dance” of ratings for the first half of 2025.