Stable above the average of the eurozone and the EU, the Greek economy is projected to maintain its strong dynamics and grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, according to its spring financial forecasts. Panel that were released today.

The Commission revises upward its estimation of development in Greece in 2024. From 2.1% of the forecast last fall GDP growth in 2024 stood at 2.3%, according to the Commission. As far as 2025 and 2026 is concerned, the provision of the Commission remains stable compared to its autumn forecasts. GDP growth in Greece is expected to be 2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, “thanks to continuous consumption and increased EU -funded investment”.

However, the Commission revises its forecasts for growth in the eurozone and the EU in 2025 and 2026, in relation to autumn forecasts. The Commission’s assessment of GDP growth in 2024 in the eurozone is 0.9% and 1.0% in the EU. For 2025 GDP is projected to increase by 0.9% in the eurozone and 1.1% in the EU and in 2026 by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. (In the autumn, the Eurozone development committee forecasts in 2025 were 1.3% in the eurozone and 1.5% in the EU and for 2026 was 1.6% in the eurozone and 1.8% in the EU).

THE inflation In Greece it is estimated at 3% in 2024 and is expected to be moderated at 2.8% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, “with strong wage developments and demand still pressing on consumer prices”.

Inflation in the eurozone in 2024 will be 2.4% and will be mitigated at 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.

OR unemploymentIn Greece in 2024 it is 10.1% and is expected to continue to decline to 9.3% in 2025 and to 8.7% in 2026.

“Greece has achieved a significant fiscal surplus in 2024, which is expected to be maintained on the horizon of forecasts,” the committee said. In 2024, the general government’s balance recorded a surplus of 1.3% of GDP. In 2025, the general government surplus is expected to decline, reaching 0.7% of GDP and in 2026 is projected to rise to 1.4% of GDP. Assisted by a strong increase in the nominal GDP, the debt to GDP continues to decline and is expected to reach 140.6% in 2026.

The report on Greece

More specifically, the Commission’s report on Greece stresses that “the Greek economy maintains its potential despite adversity”.

In 2024, Greece’s economy was developed by 2.3%. This, according to the Commission, was largely fueled by private consumption, investment and stock accumulation. Despite the fiscal policy policy, the increase in domestic demand was strong and there was a significant increase in imports, while exports increased at a slower pace. Therefore, net exports influenced economic activity.

With the progress of the recovery and resilience plan, EU -funded investments are expected to be significant in 2025 and 2026. Along with sustainable strong consumption, supported by a steady increase in income, they are expected to be the main levers of economic growth. Import demand is expected to remain strong, given the high content of imports in imports. Overall, GDP growth is expected to continue to exceed its long -term potential, at a rate of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026.

According to the Commission, the Greek economy is expected to be only slightly affected by US duties due to its relatively weak and indirect trade ties with the United States. However, the risks to growth prospects have increased and lean down, as persistent growth of trade and geopolitical uncertainty, along with the worsening of global economic perspectives, could negatively affect Greek exports, in particular tourism.

Closer labor market and sustainable salaries increase

The labor market has improved in recent years and favorable potential has continued in early 2025, the Commission estimates. After a climax in the first quarter of 2024, the rates of vacancies have begun to decline, but continue to suggest a narrow labor market, especially in tourism -related areas and those who require high skills. Employment is expected to continue to expand, although at a slower pace, as skills gaps and low labor market participation, especially among women, limit work supply. In this context, real salaries per employee are expected to increase further, on average by 1.3% per year according to the planned horizon. This is also supported by recent increases in minimum wages and the reduction of social security contributions.

Inflation will remain above the average of the eurozone

General inflation was on average 3% in 2024, 0.6 percentage points above the euro zone average. Inflation decline has been limited by accelerating services and rising power prices. In the future, wages are expected to continue to raise prices. As a result, the inflation of services is expected to slowly slow down at the time of the provisions of forecasts. Overall, inflation is projected to be 2.8% in 2025 and at 2.3% in 2026. Inflation excluding energy and food prices is projected to remain higher at 3.5% and 2.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Stronger fiscal prospects due to structural reforms

In 2024, the General Government’s balance exceeded expectations and recorded a surplus of 1.3% of GDP, compared to the projected 0.6% of GDP deficits in autumn forecasts. According to the Commission, this improvement is due to the sluggish increase in current expenditure, to the highest of the expected revenue from direct taxes and the strong receipts from social security contributions, which are linked not only to the strong increase in employment but also to measures to combat tax evasion VAT.

In 2025, the general government’s surplus is expected to decline, reaching 0.7% of GDP. On the revenue side, the forecast reflects the highest basic level due to the most powerful revenue of revenue in 2024 and takes into account the increase in the overnight tax in hotels, structural measures to combat tax evasion, expanding digital work cards and labor cards and expansion of labor cards in Local government fees. These measures are expected to offset the impact of a planned reduction by 1 percentage point of the social security contributions and increased public sector wages. On the expenditure side, forecasts incorporate a new beam of 0.5% of GDP measures, announced after the publication of the 2024 budgetary results, including the refund of a monthly rent with income criteria, a permanent social benefit of 250 euros, and a 250 -euro social benefit, Increase 500 million euros in the national investment budget.

In 2026, the general government surplus is projected to rise to 1.4% of GDP with the unchanged policy case. This improvement is expected to be supported by the continuing increase in tax revenue and social security contributions, which are expected to offset the increasing spending on pensions and wages of the public sector. The fiscal policy is projected to be expanding, supported by EU funding, both in 2025 and 2026.

The ratio of public debt to GDP is projected to continue to decline to 146.6% in 2025 and 140.6% in 2026. The decrease is due to the increase in nominal GDP as well as budget surpluses.