The global market for smartphones started in 2025 with positive signs, recording a 3% increase in shipments in the 1st quarter, according to preliminary data from the Counterpoint Research. However, analysts are warning of a possible slight decline in the annual market for the market due to increasing economic uncertainties and commercial tensions.

Specifically, the company estimates that the global market for smartphones is expected to move slightly downward in 2025, with small reductions or stabilization in missions. As they explain, growth will depend on the ability of manufacturers to innovate and adapt to new markets and technologies. According to the Counterpoint Research analysis, emerging markets will continue to be a driving lever for growth, while mature markets will be saturated and stabilized.

Counterpoint Research reviews its forecasts due to economic uncertainties and commercial tensions

Initially, Counterpoint envisioned a 4% increase in 2025, based on demand recovery and government subsidy programs, such as China. However, the imposition of US duties in April and the general economic uncertainty have led to a revision of forecasts, with the company now expecting zero or even negative annual growth.

In the United States, sales of smartphones decreased by 2% annually in the first quarter of 2025, with premium devices (over $ 800) fell by 4%. Meanwhile, the market for folding smartphones is expected to decline in 2025, with a 4% planned 4% reduction in shipments.

Basic players, regional differences

Samsung remains the leading manufacturer in number of missions a year, with a 20%share in the 1st quarter of 2025. Apple follows a breath away with 19%market share, while Xiaomi finishes Tuesday with 14%.

According to the same analysis, the Middle East and African region (MEA) records the largest annual mission development, while Europe and North America are facing demand. Global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and saturated market in developed countries are limiting sales growth.

In the meantime, the transition to 5G smartphones continues, with top brands holding about 80% of 5G missions, but innovation is not sufficient to cause a significant increase in demand.

Prospects for the future

Despite the current challenges, Counterpoint provides for market recovery in 2026, with Apple’s entry into the folding devices and the renewal of the clamshell series. In addition, the growing integration of artificial intelligence technologies into smartphones is expected to be a driving force for the market in the coming years.

Overall, in 2025 it is formed as a year of stagnation or slight decline for the world market smartphones, with future developments depending on the course of the world economy and the technological innovations of manufacturers.