Unchanged in ‘BBB’ with constant perspectives The Scope House has maintained the evaluation of the credit rating capacity of the Greek economy, completing the “dance” of ratings for the first half of 2025.

The German firm states that this “monitoring note is not a measure of credit rating, nor does it indicate the possibility that Scope will proceed with any evaluation of the short -term credit rating”.

Continuing stresses that The ‘BBB’ evaluation is supported from:

(i) Strong institutional support from Europe, with the Eurosystem and the EU providing monetary and political security nets.

(ii) Strengthening fundamental fundamental sizes, supported by primary surpluses and improving revenue, which allows a steady reduction in debt to GDP.

iii) The favorable debt profile: The high rate of long -term, low -profile debt possessed mainly by institutional public creditors, together with the significant cash reserve, enhances the ability to serve the government’s debt and mitigates the risks of potential volatility.

In terms of the challenges facing the Greek economythe house notes:

(i) the very high public debt, which remains in the long run vulnerable despite the downward course

(ii) the persistent vulnerabilities of the banking sector, including moderate capital reserves, concerns about the quality of its assets and the strong link between state and banks that increases the financial sector exposure to government risks and

(iii) Structural restrictions on medium -term growth, such as low productivity, adverse demographics and limited economic differentiation.

The German firm notes that the economy of Greece was developed at a rate of 2.3% in 2024, thanks to investment and private consumption.

For the current year, Scope expects that Growth will slow down at 2.1% and further at 1.8% in 2026as the dynamics of investment slows down, although consumption remains durable, as it notes.

He adds that labor shortages and persistent inflation in the service sector are challenges, but stresses that ongoing digital and administrative reforms reinforce the investment environment.

At the same time, the German firm notes that structural stiffness and external imbalances remain, with a net international investment position estimated at -140% of GDP in 2024, despite the gradual improvement. The current account deficit was expanded to 6.4% of GDP In 2024, reflecting the strong introductory nature of investments, increasing interest payments and low household savings, and is expected to remain high.

Also, despite the improvements in capital adequacy, profitability, quality of assets and governance, Greek banks remain structurally vulnerable due to their high dependence on deferred tax credit (DTCs) and their high exposure to government bonds.

However, the country’s fiscal performance, according to Scope, remain strong, with 4% primary surplus and total surplus of 1.3% in 2024. Scheduled primary surpluses of 2.5% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 support a projected debt reduction to 125% of GDP by 2030.

Finally, he stresses that Greece’s debt structure is favorablewith a long time, low interest costs, full fixed interest rate coverage and a large cash reserve of € 42 billion in May 2025, which maintains the risk of refinancing to a significantly limited extent.

Concerning the constant prospects of the Greek economy, Scope points out that they reflect its view that the risks that could threaten the country’s evaluation are balanced for the next 12 to 18 months.

Factors that could lead to upgrade

Finally, Scope refers to the factors that could lead the house to upgrade the evaluation and prospects of the Greek economy (individually or at the same time) or, to the negative scenario, their degradation.

More specifically, the positive scenarios For evaluation and prospects are:

  1. The sustainable and substantial reduction in public debt index
  2. Improvement of medium -term growth prospects, enhanced economic and resilience to external factors
  3. Further alleviating the vulnerabilities of the banking sector and the strengthening of financial stability.

In contrast, the negative scenarios include:

  1. Stagnation or reversal of public debt reduction
  2. Revival of banking risks that would undermine the stability of the financial system
  3. Erosion of macroeconomic resilience, including substantial weakening of external measurements.