2% growth rate this year and 2.1% in 2026 is foreseen by the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization (OECD) for the Greek economy in its six -month report (Economic Outlook) for the Member States of the eurozone released today.

The growth of the Greek economy, according to the Agency’s report, is projected to remain durable and to overcome the eurozone once again, thanks to the investment of the recovery fund and the increase in the minimum wage and the available income that will support consumption.

For the eurozone, it provides for GDP increase by 1% this year and 1.2% in 2026, compared to 0.8% which was GDP growth last year. For the global economy, the OECD provides for a significant slowdown in growth to 2.9% for both this year and 2026, from 3.3% in 2024.

Focusing on the Greek economy, the OECD reports that grants and loans from the recovery and resilience fund are expected to increase from 1.8% of GDP to 2024 to 3.6% in 2026, while private consumption is projected to increase by 1.2% by 2025% by 1.7%.

In contrast, exports are expected to slow down, in addition to slowing down demand from abroad, mainly from European Union countries, due to US duties.

The OECD notes that the Greek economy remains strong, with business expectations in the process of manufacturing and services in April, but continuing to indicate a development course.

He warns, however, that any delays in absorbing the resources of the Recovery Fund for investment, excessive salaries or a repetition of extreme weather conditions could exacerbate the prospects of the economy. For salaries he stresses that if their increase continues to overcome productivity increasing, it could further weaken exports.

“Further reduction in tax evasion and the restriction of tax expenditure – mainly of reduced VAT rates, which basically benefit rich households – would increase revenue, allowing targeted reductions in insurance contributions to boost work incentives,” the report points out.

Inflation (based on the harmonized consumer price index) is expected to be reduced to 2.5% this year and further to 2% in 2026, thanks to reducing oil prices, despite increased costs for trade and persistent price increases in the service sector.

For 2025 and 2026 the Agency provides significantly primary budget surpluses of 2.1% and 2.2% of GDP, respectively, supported by the improvement of tax compliance. These surpluses are estimated to maintain public debt on a downward trajectory, with the prospect of receiving 140% of GDP in 2026.

“Maintaining public debt on a steady downward trend should remain a priority, as the cost of aging population and investment needs increase future pressures on expenditure,” the report stresses.

“Maintaining the dynamics of reforms to improve the business environment and alleviate the great lack of workforce will support an increase in investment,” he says.

“Low productivity continues to contain competitiveness and standard of living. Stimulating investment will be crucial to boosting growth, while maintaining public debt on a steady downward trend. This will require the relief of regulatory burdens and improving workers’ skills, ”the OECD notes.