At the beginning of the year, the share of Brazilians who expect the economy to deteriorate has doubled, according to a Datafolha survey. In December, a minority of 20% had this perception. In the most recent survey, the majority, 40%, see a less promising economic future for the country.
The Datafolha poll was conducted on Tuesday (22) and Wednesday (23) with 2,556 voters in 181 cities across the country. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus.
During this period, Brazil was already feeling the spike in fuel prices, one of the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as the persistent increase in food prices, after climate change led to losses in various segments of agribusiness.
​Datafolha points to a reversal in the state of mind of Brazilians. In December, there was optimism, with a majority of 42% predicting an improvement in the economy, and 35% estimating that it would stay as it was. Now, 27% expect an improvement, and 29% estimate it will stay as it is.
It is a frustration at the start of the year, considering that the survey had shown high expectations for 2022. Overall, 73% expected this year to be better than 2021 for all Brazilians, while only 8% predicted a worsening and 15 % expected it to be the same.
In a way, the citizen’s perspective is now more aligned with that of economists and market analysts, who began reviewing Brazil’s growth at the end of last year. Projections remain below 1% in private institutions. In early March, the government itself cut its growth forecast for the year from 2.1% to 1.5%.
Economic pessimism is now widespread in the population. It contaminates most of the poorest, who earn up to two minimum wages (42%), as well as the richest, with an income above ten minimum wages (43%).
In terms of race, however, blacks are more pessimistic (45%) than whites (39) about the future of the economy. Hopelessness contaminates a large number of unemployed, among those who have given up looking for work: 53% estimate worse days for the country.
The contingent that felt the economy worsen in recent months remained practically stable, but is high. In December, 65% had this perception, in March, 66%.
HOPE FOR BETTER DAYS WITH PERSONAL LIFE
In relation to its own economic situation, the hope of better days still prevails.
The share of Brazilians who estimate a promising economic future has become smaller, but still represents the majority. In December, 56% believed their economic situation would improve. Now it’s 45%.
On the other hand, the number of pessimists grew. The portion that estimates worsens went from 9% to 18%. Those who believe that economic life does not change went from 33% to 35%.
Optimism, however, remains high among residents of the Midwest and North regions, where 51% believe their economic life will improve. On the other hand, the pessimistic share, although minority, is greater in the Northeast, where 22% estimate that their economic life will get worse.
Evangelicals are the most optimistic. In this group, 53% believe that their financial future will improve, against 42% of Catholics and 31% of Spiritualists.
The contingent that perceives priority in the personal economic situation in recent months has remained practically stable. In December, 47% had this reading, in March, 46%.
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