A reduction of the Greek GDP by 1% and a simultaneous increase of the inflation by 1% is the basic forecast of the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Giannis Stournara, who spoke at the forum of the Financial Post.
According to ot.gr, Mr. Stournaras noted that the above is the basic scenario of the central bank for the Greek economy, provided that the operations in Ukraine will stop soon.
The three scenarios
“It depends on how long the conflict in Ukraine lasts,” he said, adding that “today the markets are more optimistic and anticipate that something positive will come out of the peace talks.”
He added that “as long as the crisis lasts, we will be on alert. “We have three scenarios for how the economy will be affected.”
The BoG commander noted that even in the unfavorable scenario (to keep the war until the summer) there is no recession for Greece.
Inflation wind is blowing
From there on, he stressed that “a wind of stagnant inflation is blowing, there are trends. Supply chains are being cut. Prices are rising and production is falling, “he said, adding, however, that he was not sure if there would be stagnant inflation.
He also stressed that “yield curves have reversed in the US and some are talking about a recession, something I do not ‘buy’, but keep.”
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