By Vangelis Dourakis

On the verge of a relentless trade war there are the United States and the European Union: the position of Maros Shefsovic EU Commissioner Maros, who stressed that “If we are talking about imposition of 30% duties or more … Practically we go to a ban on transatlantic trade” In other words, he described a situation from which both will be lost, which is not far from reality.

In any case, since this trade war escalates the Great Lost will be one: the final consumer from both banks of the Atlantic. At this stage, the announcement of Donald Trump To impose duties of 30%, from August 1, 2025, it raises the risk of a trade war.

What changes in trade after Trump decisions

This is also evident from the decisions that emerged after the European Ministers of Commerce, who have prepared a list of additional anti-teaching of 72 billion euros in US imported products, in retaliation to Trump’s threats.

Brussels has already drawn up a 21 billion -euro replacement package targeting US exports, which was initially in force Tuesday and involving products such as whiskey, air components, agricultural and industrial products.

The Commission, however, is delaying the implementation of this particular duty package designed in response to the duties imposed by Trump on steel, aluminum and cars, giving time to talks and awaiting July 31, when IEEPA duties will be examined.

But what will this duty war for trade bring and what will this mean to consumers?

In today’s 30% duty threat scenario and on the basis of data provided by the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce, the additional costs for European exports can exceed 150 billion euros a year if they are applied universally to the $ 532 billion of exports, with the actual blow to the industry.

Several businesses will pass on costs to consumers, especially to medicines and machinery and others to exports of wine, agricultural products and cars, which may bring about market shares due to an increased final price.

An alternative estimate, with a 15-25% demand fall due to duties, reduces sales from 100 to 130 billion and adds costs from market share losses.

The vertical reduction in sales and exports will therefore bring about income losses to European producers and the revenue of industries and businesses.

This in turn may lead to a reduction in employment, so that consumer purchasing power is also reduced, growth with inflationary “pressures” to become even more intense.

At the same time, of course, the US can earn revenue from duties, but they will be hit by exports through countermeasures, resulting in the trade balance for both sides. And the developments in the market will be equivalent to those that will appear in the Old Epirus.

What will be the consequences of US duties in Greece

But let’s look at the dimension from the possible impact of the threatened duties of 30% on the Greek -American balance.

Greek exports to US in 2024 ranged about $ 2.6 billion and US imports from Greece to about $ 2.4 billion with Greece having a mild surplus of $ 0.2 billion in goods.

With a 30% duty, Greek exports to food, drinks, medicines and industrial products will face increased costs, possibly reducing exports by 20-25% and with losses of at least $ 0.5 billion.

This will turn the Greek trade surplus into a deficit, affecting Greek export companies, especially small and medium -sized.

Thus, the “duty war” affects key – in the first phase – domestic small and large producers of agricultural and dairy products exporting to the United States.

The domestic agri -food sector is the first to accept the consequences, representing 31% of Greek exports to the US.

Imposing duties, therefore, initially affects products such as olive oil, table olives, dairy products, especially feta, wine, and even peach compote, which constitute the top Greek in this market.

These products are directly at risk of losing their competitiveness in the US, as it is difficult to absorb duties of such magnitude by the intermediate “rings” of the market before Greek products reach US shelves

In other words, domestic products will now be more expensive for Americans and therefore less competitive, despite any efforts that may be made by Greek companies and representatives – distributors of Greek products in the US to “cover” part of the tariff burden.

This will practically mean shrinking the demand for Greek agri -food, as well as industrial, products in the United States and thus a decrease in our country’s exports to the American continent, causing “headaches” to domestic businesses.