The European Commission has taken its first step towards negotiating the EU’s EU spending plan for the seven -year period since 2028, but the two -year negotiations are heralded “rugged”, with conflicting interests, as demonstrated in Politico analysis.

European Commission President Ursula von der Laien insisted that the 1.8 trillion euro plan would make the EU fund “bigger”, “smarter” and “more efficient”, and that the budget was “the most ambitious ever suggested”.

However, in a sign of the harsh negotiations that will follow, the frustrated MEPs hastened to refute von der Laieni’s allegations, saying that the Commission has misleading the adjustments to the – important – inflation in recent years as an increase in the EU budget.

“The European Commission will present different points of the budget, which have increased. But, of course, if the budget remains at the same level, then this means that several points in the budget should be reduced, “said Romanian Zigfried Mouresan, a member of the center -right European People’s Party.

All the capitals of the states, as well as the European Parliament, must agree on the plan prior to its approval. As the battle lines are carved, Politico has compiled a handy guide to who is favored – and who the “thrown” – in the original sentence.

Lost: Farmers

Farmers are furious.

In the latest long -term EU budget, Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) amounted to 386.6 billion euros. This time, 300 billion euros are available for agriculture.

And the Commission throws “salt in the wound”. While the CAP was an autonomous part of the budget, it has now been merged with funding for other policies in a fund for “national and regional partnership plans”.

According to these plans, European countries must spend at least 300 billion euros on agriculture and could spend more if they choose to do so. But groups of farmers who are protesting outside parliament and the committee do not feel optimistic.

Lost: Tobacco

While the vast majority of the budget would come from the same contributions from EU countries, the Commission also proposed three new taxes aimed at electric waste, large companies and tobacco products, such as cigarettes and cigars. These goods are currently taxed by individual countries, which keep the revenue for themselves.

The target is revenue of from € 25 to 30 billion euros a year, which will be used to repay the EU common debt, which was used to finance the after Covid recovery.

Cigarette prices are expected to increase anyway across the EU, based on a long-awaited information to the tobacco tax directive, with rough estimates reporting that the price of a package will increase by 1-2 euros. For the first time, alternative products, such as electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco, will be subject to a minimum rate, though lower than for traditional cigarettes.

Lost: Nature

Biodiversity is expected to lose its own share of the EU budget, absorbed by a wider “climate and environment” target of 35% of the budget, reaching about 700 billion euros.

Previously – in addition to the 30% target for climate costs – 7.5% of annual expenditure was to be available for biodiversity targets in 2024, increasing to 10% in 2026 and 2027.

The new “climate and environment” target would serve all six EU environmental targets, extending from climate and biodiversity to the circular economy and pollution prevention.

The LIFE program – special funding for the environment and climate action – has also been absorbed in the “national and regional plans”, as well as in the “Competitiveness Fund” of 410 billion euros that combines many existing funding programs.

Some NGOs warn that changes could mean that funding for biodiversity will lose ground. The EU is already facing an estimated annual funding gap for biodiversity of € 37 billion, according to the European Commission.

Winners: Eastern countries and Ukraine

Eastern countries have achieved a major victory on Wednesday, when the Commission announced that the eastern regions, and especially those bordering Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, will receive more capital than others to meet both their security and financial needs.

They also won another battle: Although the EU was looking for desperate new money for its funds, it did not include revenue from an already designed expansion of the EU broadcasting system in buildings and road transport to the proposed basket of new sources of revenue.

Finally, the EU proposed the support of Ukraine rebuilding and its march to EU accession with an additional 100 billion euros.

Winners: Those who pay electricity bills

According to the proposal, the EU will dramatically boost support for the modernization of bloc’s electricity networks to reduce electricity prices, which were highlighted in a report by former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi as the Achilles of Europe and the US.

The Connecting Europe, a fund that can be used to upgrade infrastructure and invest in new technologies, will see its energy budget grow to 30 billion euros from just 6 billion euros. In addition, networks will use a brave enlarged competitiveness fund of 410 billion euros in an effort to reduce waste and cuts in household and business consumption accounts.

Winners: Digital Technologies

The committee wants to five times the bloc’s money for digital technologies, von der Laen has declared. This would raise digital funds to 54.8 billion euros in the next budget.

This is a huge increase in an area where the EU has already invested significant funds for research and innovation. But the stakes have increased, with areas from US to China competing hard for innovative technologies – mainly artificial intelligence.

Digital technology is one of the four pillars of a new, integrated competitive fund, which has a total amount of 410 billion euros.

Winners: Defense

The committee’s proposal is to allocate at least 131 billion euros for defense and space, which means “fivefolding today,” von der Laen said.

Separate budgets will also be used to enhance the defense readiness of the block. The proposal “shows a welcome ambition,” commented Hannah Neanman, a German MEP of the Greens, who participates in the European Parliament’s defense committee. The amount is in line with the needs found early by the Commissioner for Defense Andrian button when he first spoke at Politico at the end of last year.

Winners: Research and Culture

The bloc’s flagship research and development program, Horizon Europe, is going to be almost doubled at 175 billion euros. It is already one of the largest such funds in the world, with a budget of 95 billion euros – although a team of experts argued that the EU should increase its costs for research and growth to 220 billion euros in order to remain competitive.

The distribution for the EU emblematic program for student mobility, Erasmus+, increased by 50% to over 40 billion euros. The Commission also announced a new program, “Agoraeu”, worth 8.6 billion euros to support the culture, media and civil society organizations.

Pending: Military Mobility

The Commission wants the Union to allocate 17.7 billion euros for military mobility, according to Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas. On paper, this looks like a major victory compared to the 1.7 billion euro military mobility budget in the current budget.

In fact, it is far short of € 75 billion or even 100 billion euros that had stated that Tzitzikostas had needed.

While parts of the budget for political transport can support dual -use infrastructure – and additional defense funds may be used – military needs still appear to be treated only in part.

The Commission proposed that the future Connecting Europe, the EU’s funding for infrastructure, should amount to € 81.4 billion. About 51 billion euros will be allocated for transport.

Pending: Cities and Regions

The EU cohesion funding program aims to boost growth in the poorer areas of the block and reduce inequality. It is currently more than one -third of the current EU budget. But instead of being an autonomous policy on the budget proposal of 2028, cohesion funding is addressed through the so -called national and regional partnership plans developed by national governments.

In a last -minute agreement, the Commission promises that the poorest areas of the block will receive 218 billion euros in the next budget, which was a key request by Rafael Filo Regional Commissioner. However, no such guarantees have been given to the rest of the EU, which is fearing that the total amount for regional development will be less than in the current budget. These are bad news for cities and rural areas based on cohesion funds to finance everything, from roads to public libraries.

In addition, local and regional leaders are concerned about the proposed budget’s attempt to give central governments excessive power to manage and distribute EU funds through the Corporate Relationship Plan Program and concern that national leaders could punish them.