About 15 Super Bowls, Chrysler impressed the audience with an ad by Eminem, which contained the slogan “Imported from Detroit” (imported by Detroit).

This was ironic, and even double, because the automotive industry had recently been rescued by bankruptcy, thanks to the Italian Fiat (now belonging to Stellantis). This paradoxical spirit lives and reigns in the US-EU trade agreement announced this weekend and comes shortly after another agreement announced with Japan, but the US car industry may have a reason to hope.

As with that agreement, the US has set 15% duties on a range of imported products, including cars. There were no more details. However, the levy is lower than it was initially said, and offered this kind of specialized relief you feel when you escape the absolute disaster and simply mutilate.

The US has imported about 800,000 vehicles from the EU last year – about 5% of the US market – and the new reduced duty represents a savings of about 4 billion euros, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. BMW and Mercedes-Benz are particularly benefiting due to the zero duty set to US car exports to Europe, as they are expected to send about 180,000 vehicles from US factories, mainly SUVs, on the other side of the Atlantic.

The latter is interesting because it represents almost all US exports to the EU. In other words, the phrase “imported from Detroit” is almost no importance to Europe.

Therefore, as with Japan, the importance of the EU agreement on US automakers lies more to enhance their presence to some extent rather than signaling the opening of a new market. Having dedicated heavily to the manufacture of heavier petrol vehicles to serve US preferences, Ford and General Motors can still take some steps in Europe with electric vehicles. For example, GM recently announced the launch of Cadillac Lyriq-V.

But these exports are relatively small for the near future and cannot be compared to the rapid growth of Chinese exports in Europe. Meanwhile, Tesla could benefit, if one considers that the company’s biggest challenge in Europe is the vehicles produced in its German factory, after the company’s trademark, shortly after the MASK support on the AfD and the consequent decline in sales.

A commercial team representing GM, Ford and Stellantis, had criticized the agreement with Japan because the contributions remained higher for the North American supply chain on the US.

From a commercial point of view, what really matters to the American industry is the reduction of duties in vehicles imported from Canada and Mexico. Vehicles produced in these two countries account for about 20%, 30% and 40% of Ford, GM and Stelantis sales in the US respectively, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. GM announced in June a Reshoring program (the practice of moving a business or part of a business based in a different country back to its parent country) worth $ 4 billion to reduce its report, though the benefits of it will not appear before 2027.

Unless, of course, offers Trump a successful message to speed up a deal with Canada and Mexico. As things are, European (including the United Kingdom) and Japanese automakers are now receiving a hit for the approximately 2.3 million vehicles to export to the US, but at least a quantitative blow that is lower than expected. US automakers, meanwhile, face 25% duties in a huge part of their supply chain, as well as duties to imported steel and some components, and the large unknown when or whether there will be a similar large deal for North America.

However, even in today’s volatile commercial environment, you must believe that US automakers will not lead to a permanent situation that will be worse than that has been agreed with opponents on the other side of the two oceans. (By the way, BMW and Volkswagen AG, who both build models in Mexico to sell them to the US, could also use a new deal).

The greatest hope of investors in the automotive industry is that the logic of agreements to date is preparing a deal that really matters to US companies.