Slightly improved are IMF forecasts for the Global Development for 2025 and in 2026 As Trump’s duties will eventually be lower but also because of the reduction of the real US tariff rate at 17.3% from 24.4%.

However, he warned that The global economy is facing significant dangersincluding a possible recovery of tariff rates, geopolitical tensions and greater budgetary deficits that could increase interest rates and tighten global financial conditions.

“The global economy is still being affected and will continue to be hit with duties at this level, even though the situation is not as bad as it could be,” said Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Pierre-Kolivier Gourinas.

The IMF increased its global prediction by 0.2 percentage points, in particular, to 3% for 2025 and by 0.1 of the percentage unit to 3.1% in 2026below the 3.3% growth it had foreseen for both years in its forecasts last January, and the historical average 3.7% before pandemic.

He also said that the global inflation It is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, but noted that inflation will probably remain above the target in the United States as duties will be passed on to US consumers in the second half of the year.

Also, increased his prediction for the eurozone by 0.2 of the percentage percentage at 1% in 2025 and left the provision for 2026 unchanged at 1.2%. The IMF said the upward revision reflects a historically large increase in Irish pharmaceutical exports to the United States without it, the revision would be half.

US growth was expected to reach 1.9% in 2025increased by 0.1 percentage unit from April forecasts, reaching 2% in 2026. A new law on tax cuts and spending in the US was expected to increase the US budget deficit by 1.5 percentage unit, with revenue from duties.

The prospects of China They received a higher upgrade of 0.8 to the percentage of the percentage, reflecting the strongest of the expected activity in the first half of the year and a significant decrease in US-China duties after declaring a temporary truce from Washington and Beijing.

The IMF increased its prediction for China’s growth in 2026 by 0.2 of the percentage percentage to 4.2%.

For the world trade, the IMF revised its provision by 0.9 of the percentage point to 2.6%, but reduced its prediction for 2026 by 0.6 of the percentage percentage to 1.9%.

THE actual tariff factor US has been reduced since April, but remains much higher than estimated level of 2.5% in early January. The corresponding tariff rate for the rest of the world is 3.5%, compared to 4.1% in April, the IMF said.

The US PresidentDonald Trump It has overturned world trade by imposing 10% universal duties on almost all countries since April and threatening even higher duties on Friday. The much higher “eye -to -eye” duties imposed by the US and China were postponed until August 12, with talks in Stockholm this week leading to further extension.

However, the new agreements reached between the US and the European Union and Japan came too late to take into account July’s forecasts.

Personnel simulations showed that global growth in 2025 would be about 0.2 percentage points lower if the maximum tariff rates announced in April and July, the IMF said.

The ever -changing tariff rates have caused uncertainty that has reduced investment flows and has kept markets in disruption, although two new 15% duty agreements reached by Washington with Japan and the European Union last week provided a great deal.

IMF stated that The global economy is proven to be resilient for the time being, but uncertainty remains high. He said that the composition of the activity implies “distortions from trade, rather than underlying health”.

Pierre-Kolivier Gurinca said this year’s prospects have been reinforced by what he called a “huge amount” of front-facing investment, as businesses were trying to prevent duties, but the boost of the accumulation of stocks would not last.

“This will weaken,” he said, adding, “this will be a hindrance to economic activity in the second half of the year and by 2026. There will be a repayment for this initial burden and this is one of the dangers we face.”

The duties were expected to remain high and there were already indications that consumer prices in the US were starting to grow, he said.

“The underlying duty is much higher than it was in January and February. If this remains, and there is evidence that it will remain on a level around what we are predicting, this will affect growth in the future, contributing to a truly average global performance. “