The US is putting in place tomorrow’s additional customs duties on products that import from almost all areas of the world, whether signed or not agreements
Japan, Indonesia, European Union, South Korea … Donald Trump manages to impose customs duties on almost all of his commercial partners, ensuring that there will be no retaliation, forming new balances of forces, but at least without changing the world.

The US will apply from Friday, August 1, additional customs duties to products that import from almost all parts of the world, whether signed or not agreements with Washington.

The decline in customs ties was imposed as a pillar of globalization since the GSEE – General Duty and Trade Agreement, Gatt in English – was created in 1947 – ancestor of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which currently has 166 members and represents 98% of international trade.

“We have learned post -war that a country is more prosperous when it reduces its customs duties. It is also better for other countries to reduce their own, “Richard Baldwin, a professor specializing in the international economy at the IMD Business School of Lausanne, a former member of the White House Economic Council under the presidency of George Bush, told the French Agency.

The current US president jumps backwards by imposing duties that will be the highest since at least 1930.

But the consequences for world trade, beyond the US, are expected to be rather limited.

“Trump has not yet exterminated the global trade system as the rest of the world has not changed his view on the issue. As a rule, he sees trade favorably, “according to Mr Baldwin.

US importers will, in principle, lift the greater weight of duties, may decide either to increase the bid or to convey the account to US consumers.

But “this will not have a systemic impact” on the rest of the world, Pascal Lami, a former WTO General Manager, estimated at AFP. Donald Trump, as he sees it, “Pyrrhic Victory”, as it is his country that will suffer the heaviest blow.

Trade of goods has grown dramatically in recent years, exceeding $ 24 trillion in value in 2023, according to the WTO.

US imports, above all new customs duties, represent only 13% of the world.

Duties are a “major” issue, but they only concern “part of global imports and the rest of the world continues to want to operate with a model of commitment and interdependence to global trade,” believes Elvir Fabri, a specialist in the geopolitical trade in the European Institute.

Various plans to conclude trade agreements are the subject of negotiations.

In March, Japan, South Korea and China pledged to accelerate their negotiations in view of the agreement. Brazilian President Lula is calling for an agreement between Mercosur states (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay) and Japan.

At the end of 2024, the European Union signed a free trade agreement with Mercosur, although it still continues to face obstacles. He also resumed talks to this purpose with Malaysia and states in Central Asia.

The global economy is expected to withstand, despite uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated Tuesday.

In addition, Donald Trump’s trade war focuses, so far, at least on goods, not on services, Pascal Lamia points out. The latter are “the portion of international trade exchanges that records the fastest increase”.

“We need to change glasses when we observe international transactions,” he continued, commenting that “Donald Trump has a medieval view” on the issue.

The WTO for the first time in April on the trade trade, which is expected to increase 4% in 2025, which is, however, about 1 unit below what was foreseen before the trade war was launched.

The trade of goods is expected to shrink by 0.2% this year before it increased a “moderate” increase of 2.5% in 2026, according to the same international institution.

These provisions, however, had not apparently taken into account the duties that would begin to be implemented tomorrow.