Most of the large brokerage companies are expecting interest rates by 25 basis points at the US Federal Bank meeting in September this week, with Standard Chartered forecast to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points to be the only exception.
August data showed a significant slowdown in increased employment and increased unemployment to 4.3%, while inflation pressures continued to mitigate, pushing some analysts to suggest that market conditions give the Fed margin to move faster.
Traders are now discounting a 94.2% possibility for a reduction in 25 base points at the Federal Open Market meeting on September 16 and 17 and a 5.8% possibility for a decrease of 50 base points, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool, Reuters notes.
Following are the forecasts by the big stock markets for 2025:
- Citigroup – 75 Base Units
- Wells Fargo – 75 Base Units
- Goldman Sachs – 75 Base Units
- Macquarie – 50 base units
- Jpmorgan – 75 base units
- Barclays – 75 Base Units
- Nomura – 50 base units
- Morgan Stanley – 75 Base Units
- Deutsche Bank – 75 Base Units
- Bofa Global Research – 50 Base Units
- UBS Global Research – 100 base units
- BNP Paribas – 50 base units
- HSBC – 50 basis points
- UBS Global Wealth Management – 100 basis points until the first half of 2026
- Standard Chartered 50 Base Units
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are separate, independent sections of UBS Group
Source: Skai
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