The shutdown of the US Federal Government (Shutdown), after failing to have an inter -party agreement on public spending, had little impact on international markets, as analysts and investment firms expected.

Wednesday, when the shutdown and hundreds of thousands of public service workers were put into unpaid leave, large stock rates in Wall Street And Europe was closed with profits, with the rise continuing in the next two days.

The experience of the previous 15 Shutdown in American history since 1981, which lasted from a few days to a few weeks, has reassured investors. Thus, the euphoria on the stock markets has been continuing since April, with a key narrative being artificial intelligence and the prospect of further interest rates by the US Central Bank (FED). The only impact appeared on gold, the price of which continued the frantic rally, approaching $ 3,900 per ounce, amidst the general uncertainty and the prospect of US interest rates.

In the past, any decrease in US GDP from Shutdown was small and recovery for the most part after the complete reopening of public services. The latest Shutdown in the US took place in December 2018/January 2019 – during Trump’s first presidential term – and lasting 35 days, the largest so far. Its impact on GDP, according to a White House, was 0.1% for each week when civil servants were not paid. In absolute amounts, the Congress Budget Office estimated the reduction of GDP to $ 11 billion. dollars. Of these, 8 billion. They were recovered as civil servants, who had been deprived of their salary, were paid retroactively after the expiration of Shutdown. The consequences, therefore, on a macroeconomic level are insignificant to influence markets.

Failure to pay over 1.5 million employees makes it unlikely to suspend for a long time in the operation of public services, because otherwise there would be serious economic and social problems. During the shutdown, those who are unpaid, but also those employees who continue to work in services that are necessary, such as, for example, are not paid during the Shutdown.

The 2018 Shutdown, the Democrats had disagreed with the funding of the wall that Trump wanted to build at the US border with Mexico. However, when air traffic auditors stayed for a second month without a salary, they began to report massive illness, resulting in cancellations or long delays in transporting flights. After that, Shutdown stopped.

Now, the Democrats do not agree with the bill proposed by the White House and the Republicans for a short -term public lending after the end of the fiscal year on September 30, setting as a condition not to reduce the number of those who are entitled to public medical or medical care or medical care Health premiums. Both of these meters had been voted on in the spring with the big tax bill of Trump.

The two sides are trying to throw each other responsibility for Shutdown to avoid public reactions. Trump is pushing the Democrats, threatening to redundancies of civil servants, which was also progressed by his former partner and billionaire Ilon Musk. Trump said there would be thousands of redundancies.

The shutdown phenomenon is unique in the US as other countries continue to finance spending in any case. In America there is a 19th -century law on spending funding, which was given more restrictive interpretation under Jimmy Carter in 1980, resulting in such situations.

According to this interpretation, no expenditure can be made unless it is provided by a law that has passed by an increased majority of Congress. Specifically, it must be voted on by at least 60 senators and not only by the simple majority (51), as applicable to other bills. Thus, Trump, although he has a majority in both Congress bodies, needs the agreement of some democratic senators.