Pãozinho will become more Brazilian in the coming years

Pãozinho should be more Brazilian in the coming years. The war in Ukraine showed the country’s need to rethink some agricultural activities, especially wheat.

Brazil was strongly affected in two fundamental points in the external dependence that agribusiness has: fertilizers and wheat.

In the case of the first, imports come directly from one of the countries involved in the conflict, which is Russia. With regard to wheat, both Ukraine and Russia are important world exporters of the cereal.

Although the two have no direct importance in the volume of wheat imported by Brazil, the country is suffering the effects of the international price spike.

This year’s national production is expected to rise to 7.9 million tons, with consumption of 12.7 million. Hence the need to import 6.5 million tons. A good part will be at current price levels, which are 35% higher than a year ago.

One of the solutions is the tropicalization of wheat, a challenge that Embrapa has been facing for several years. Wheat has to go the way of soybeans and corn. And that starts to happen. Experiments already indicate good productivity of the cereal even in Roraima.

In the late 1970s, at least 87% of the area sown with soybeans was concentrated in the three southern states. In 2000, after the development of varieties adapted to the Brazilian cerrado, this percentage dropped to 43%. It currently stands at 31%.

Also in the late 1970s, the South was responsible for 42% of the area sown with maize. Currently there are only 20%. These products gained new areas, new technologies and internal and external liquidity.

This is the path that wheat should follow, according to Celso Moretti, president of Embrapa. In the 1970s, the wheat area in Brazil was concentrated in the South, which represented 93% of the space dedicated to this crop. Five decades later, the South still holds 90% of the wheat sown area.

In the assessment of the president of Embrapa, a tropicalization of the product is necessary, as happened with soy and corn. And the war in Ukraine has further aroused this need.

The advancement of technology allowed these products to travel to new regions, and the country went from being an importer of food to becoming self-sufficient and even becoming one of the main world exporters.

Wheat could take the same path and, in a decade, the country will be self-sufficient and an exporter. In Embrapa’s accounts, national production may rise to 14.7 million tons in ten years.

Central Brazil offers the possibility of growing wheat on two million hectares, in an area that is already consolidated and without the need for incorporation of unexplored land.

The national area to be cultivated this year should be close to three million hectares. “Brazil has the technology to increase production and eliminate the need to import wheat. Embrapa’s role is to provide solutions”, says the company’s president.

It is clear, according to Moretti, that, as with soy and corn, the country needs to develop an infrastructure for this crop. In addition to credit, investments will be needed in the milling sector, which is concentrated in the center-south and on the coast. He believes in this evolution. “The war heated up the issue,” he says.

Jorge Lemainski, general manager of Embrapa Trigo, in Passo Fundo (RS), says that the challenges are still great. They go through proper management, definition of sowing density and right time.

In addition, the fight against blast, one of the main wheat diseases in the region, and the search for cultivars that adapt to water stress are important.

Lemainski says that the Cerrado has the potential to reach 280,000 hectares of sown area already in this plantation. In his assessment, wheat is starting to gain liquidity, which is very important for producers.

Demand grows in three main directions. In addition to human need, there is an increase in the planting of wheat for animal feed, in addition to an evolution in exports.

In the first three months of this year, foreign sales of wheat totaled 2.21 million tons, 289% more than in the same period last year. Imports fell to 1.53 million tonnes in the period, down 17%.

According to data released by Secex (Secretary of Foreign Trade) on Thursday (7), Rio Grande do Sul, when exporting 1.97 million tons, led foreign sales. This volume is 247% higher than in the same period last year.

For Osvaldo Vieira, an analyst at Embrapa Trigo, the liquidity that the cereal is having is very important for the producer. He highlights the importance of wheat growing in the Northeast.

Production from Maranhão, leaving through the port of Itaqui, would be highly competitive in North Africa. The Brazilian product would gain importance in large markets, such as those in Algeria, Morocco and Egypt.

A great novelty is the arrival of wheat in Roraima. The first experiments left Embrapa producers and researchers excited. The state’s productivity reached 3,000 kg per hectare. The Brazilian average is 2,748 kg.

Edvan Alves Chagas, chief general of Embrapa Roraima, says that the planting of wheat has challenges in the state, due to the low altitude and latitude and dry climate, but the advantages are many.

Roraima’s planting schedule is similar to that of the United States. Soybean sowing takes place from April to May, and harvesting from August to October. Next comes the soy safrinha.

Producers were running out of options because they will have to respect the sanitary vacuum, since soy rust is reaching the region.

Wheat, in addition to being a new option, breaks the cycle of diseases in soybeans, facilitates weed and nematode control and increases the volume of straw in the soil.

The Embrapa researchers found that, due to the light, the wheat production cycle is much faster in Roraima. While in the South some varieties take 120 days to fully develop, in the state it takes only 66 days.

With this, producers can make up to two wheat crops after the soybeans are removed from the field.

The first experiments have already indicated high production, but this volume could grow to 5,000 kg per hectare, believes Chagas, with proper management and progress in research.

The adaptation of wheat in Roraima should follow the trajectory of soybeans and rice. This, when planting started in the state, had a rainfed productivity of 3,000 kg per hectare. Today there are 6,000. The irrigated reaches 15 thousand kg.

Soybean, whose current production is 65 to 70 bags per hectare, has tripled its productivity in recent years. Faced with these adaptations, the head of Embrapa in Roraima says that the evolution of wheat will be great in the coming years.

Land and seed are not lacking in the state. The cerrado area reaches one million hectares, available for soybean, rice, corn and wheat. In the case of seeds, Embrapa’s BRS 264 and BRS 394 varieties are being used.

As happened in the Midwest during the soy advance, Roraima does not have a complete infrastructure for the development of the wheat chain. The product should be shipped to Manaus, 750 km away, where the nearest mill is located.

Chagas points out, however, that many trucks that take products to the state can be an escape route to spawn the wheat. Only rice already has a complete chain in the state. Soybeans will only now have the first crusher in the region.

“We are confident, but we still have a lot to do,” he says.

When this expansion of wheat to the states of the Midwest, Northeast and North is really confirmed, the headquarters of Embrapa Trigo, in Passo Fundo (RS), the initial wheat region, will also have to be tropicalized.