Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Bolsonaro doesn’t have money to readjust his server, pay politicians and win votes

People who will no longer receive emergency aid queue up to enter the Cadastro Único, the list of those who want to receive Brazil Aid, a substitute for Bolsa Família. From now on, some 19 million will be without emergency aid and without Brazil Aid.

Quietly, this hunger line appeared here and there, in newspapers and on TVs. Not much attention is paid to these “invisibles” in sight.

Loudly, Jair Bolsonaro said he wants to give raises to federal employees. If he succeeds, there will be nothing left of that R$91.6 billion that he intends to fix with the default on court orders and the readjustment of the government’s expenditure ceiling.

There would be nothing left to increase the money for parliamentary amendments: to pay the rent for the center. There would be nothing left for those 19 million in the hunger line. It was no longer foreseen that these people would receive help. Now Bolsonaro adds insult to injury.

If you don’t use the PEC money, as Bolsonaro wants, the government will have to cut elsewhere: finish destroying science or not even do the work of filling holes in the road.

The readjustment of servers would lead to few new votes for Bolsonaro. It would affect some 2 million people, most of whom reject it until they are mummified and painted gold.

What does Bolsonaro want? Entered the final Nero stage?

Among some people who manage large amounts of money, the impression is that Bolsonaro is going for “nothing or nothing”, as one bank treasurer said: he will not win votes with the electoral flyers and will “set the economy on fire”.

Bolsonaro gave the impression that he could still do any business to increase expenses in a wild and inept way. In practice, it’s not that simple. But, in the perception of those who observe the economy and manage money, Bolsonaro is completely out of control.

If the Precatório PEC passed as the government wants, it would give almost R$ 92 billion in extra spending. Hence, the increase in expenses with Brazil’s Auxílio, with the mandatory expenditure high due to skyrocketing inflation and with the discount of taxes on the payroll of companies. About R$ 15 billion are left. A 5% reset for servers gives more than that. There would be nothing left, then. Nor for the gas voucher, almost approved in Congress.

Auxílio Brasil would increase the monthly amount of Bolsa Família and would add another 3 million to the package (17 million families in total). Another 19 million who are now receiving emergency aid are left with nothing. Many people who are going to receive this less skinny Bolsa Família already hate Bolsonaro. Who will lose everything, will find what? What is the electoral balance of this? Maybe negative.

There will be more socio-economic and political-electoral debts. Bolsonaro threw away the recovery that had been going well until the first quarter. The coup scum, the preaching of death in the epidemic, the mismanagement of the economy, all that and something else made the dollar more expensive and raised inflation and interest rates. More people will not get jobs. He’ll live off odds and ends, if that.

The amount that will come out of the PEC dos Precatório still depends on votes in the Senate. At the limit, it can even fall. So, the government may want to issue a decree of calamity to spend or ask for “extraordinary credits” in order to pay for Auxílio Brasil, which may be illegal. It is more likely that parliamentarians make any arrangement with the PEC, limiting the damage to what is already known. But the chance of extra idiocy is on the table or, better, in Bolsonaro’s Russian roulette, in the pipe he placed on the country’s head. At least that’s the fear now, Bolsonero’s ultimate MMA.