Climate change threatens 4% of global GDP, study estimates

Climate change could cause a loss of 4% of annual global economic output by 2050 and disproportionately hit many poorer parts of the world, a new study covering 135 countries has estimated.

Rating agency S&P Global, which gives countries credit scores based on the health of their economies, published a report on Tuesday analyzing the likely economic impact of rising sea levels and waves of waves. heat, droughts and more regular storms.

In a baseline scenario where governments largely avoid significant new climate change policies, middle and low-income countries are likely to experience GDP (Gross Domestic Product) losses that are 3.6 times higher, on average, than of richer nations.

The exposure of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to forest fires, floods, major storms as well as water shortages means that South Asia has 10% to 18% of GDP at risk, approximately triple the threatened percentage of the world. North America and ten times the rate in the least affected region, Europe.

The Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa regions also face considerable losses. East Asian and Pacific countries face similar exposure levels to sub-Saharan Africa, but mainly because of storms and floods rather than heat waves and droughts.

“To varying degrees, this is a problem for the world,” said S&P’s top government credit analyst Roberto Sifon-Arevalo. “One thing that really stands out is the need for international support for many of these (poorer) parts of the world.”

Countries in the Equator region or small islands tend to be most at risk, while economies that are more dependent on sectors such as agriculture are likely to be more affected than those with large service sectors.