Commodity Shuttle: With price rises, soy oil export revenue is expected to rise 54% in 2022

One of the products most affected by the Ukrainian War was vegetable oils. The numbers released by Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oils) this Tuesday (10th) indicate the new price level reached by soybean oil.

This strong evolution is due to the drop in the world supply of the main oils. Ukraine, the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil, and Russia, another important country in this market, have marketing problems.

The rise in prices forced several countries to limit exports of other vegetable oils, further putting pressure on prices in this sector on the international market.

One of the biggest interference came from Indonesia, which limited sales of palm oil. As a result, the world trade of vegetable-derived oils was very limited, due to both the action of the Asian country and the effects of the war in Eastern Europe.

The consequences of this supply difficulty spread throughout the world market. And Brazil was not exempt. With strong external demand, the country is expected to export 1.8 million tons this year, 9.1% more than in 2021.

Prices rose a step, reaching US$ 1,735 per ton at the port of Paranaguá, 42% more than in the same period last year.

Higher prices and an increase in the volume of exports should raise export revenues to US$ 3.12 billion this year, 54% more than last year, according to Abiove estimates.

Brazil will process 48 million tons of soybeans, which will yield 36.7 million tons of bran and 9.7 million tons of oil.

Even with the drop in the volume of soybeans exported, which drops to 77.2 million tons, Brazil will achieve historic revenues of US$ 58 billion from foreign sales of the soy complex (grains, bran and oil).

In 2021, soybean exports totaled 86.1 million tons.

The drop in Brazilian soybean exports is due to the 20 million ton reduction in production this crop, due to the drought in the South region.

The data for this month already show a slowdown, according to Anec (National Association of Cereal Exporters). Foreign sales in May, which reached 14.2 million tons in 2021, should fall to 10.6 million this month, according to preliminary data from the association.

The pressure of vegetable oil prices is already reaching the consumer’s pocket. In the last 30 days until the first week of this month, soybean oil rose 7.6% in São Paulo, accumulating an increase of 17.5% in the year.

The data, released this Tuesday, are from Fipe (Economic Research Institute Foundation). The soy derivative also forced the rise of sunflower and corn oils, which had increases of 6% and 5%, respectively, in the last 30 days.

Wheat India and Brazil stand out in the foreign market for wheat exports at the beginning of the year. The Indians increased their exports in the first quarter by 275%, in relation to the same period of the previous year.

wheat 2 Brazil, on the other hand, should increase exports by 365% in the first five months. Foreign sales are estimated at 2.4 million tons by Anec.

slower pace In April this year, 180 mills in the central-south region put their machines in the field to harvest sugarcane. In the same month last year, there were 207 units.

will accelerate The data are from Unica (Union of the Sugarcane Industry), which provides for the entry into operation of another 57 units in the first half of the month.

citrus growing In addition to unfavorable weather conditions in recent years, the citrus industry is now facing a rise in inputs, which should compromise investments in the sector.

citrus 2 The assessment is from Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), which forecasts a 75% increase in fertilizer costs in the 22/23 harvest, compared to the previous one.