The oil will not be lacking in the world in the short term despite the growing isolation of Russiaas demand is slowing down and production is increasing in other countries, announced today the International Energy Organization (IEA).
“Stable growth in production elsewhere (outside Russia), combined with a slowdown in demand growth, especially in China, is expected to prevent any acute shortage of supply in the short term.” estimates the agency in its monthly report on oil.
Despite the current uncertainties, the agency also notes that while volatility remains significant in the market, prices are in the range of less than $ 10 a barrel over $ 100.
The IEA forecasts for this year increase in demand by 1.8 million barrels per day, to reach a total of 99.4 million barrels per day. But the growth rate is expected to decline during the yearwith the slowing global growththe rise in pump prices as well as the return of severe locksmiths in China.
However, the organization draws attention to the summer, with the period of great car travel in North America and the restoration of air traffic. If refineries fail to meet this rate, there may be an impact on consumers.
In terms of supply, the agency points out one growing isolation of Russia after its invasion of Ukrainewhile the West is considering imposing an embargo and the Big real estate companies abandon Russian oil.
“After a reduction in supply of almost 1 million barrels per day in April, losses could increase to almost 3 million barrels per day during the second half of this year.” provided by the authors of the report.
But the IAE is counting on increasing volumes coming from the US and Middle Eastern countries to offset these losses. He thus believes that world production outside Russia will increase by 3.1 million barrels per day from May to December.
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