Despite the promise of the new Minister of Mines and Energy, Adolfo Sachsida, of agility in the studies of privatization of Petrobras, the financial market does not see chances of approval of the process still in this mandate.
The assessment is that the conclusion of the eventual sale of the state-owned company depends on a series of steps and will face great resistance in Congress. In the fuel sector, the announcement was seen as yet another government smokescreen.
The request for studies for privatization was delivered by Sachsida to the Ministry of Economy this Thursday (12), one day after the inauguration of the new Minister of Mines and Energy, who replaces Admiral Bento Albuquerque in charge of the government’s energy sector.
Sachsida and Guedes also defend the privatization of PPSA (Pré-Sal Petróleo SA), responsible for managing the government’s share of oil production in pre-salt fields.
The analyst at Ativa Investimentos Ilan Arbetman recalls that the privatization of Eletrobras began to be discussed during the José Sarney administration and today, even after approval of a law in Congress, it faces questions at the TCU (Union Court of Auditors).
“In the case of Petrobras, what would be done is to order a study on feasibility, financial impacts… So, we are in a very incipient process”, he says, adding that it is still too early to assess the impacts on the company.
“The company is very large, it involves several stakeholders [públicos de interesse] and we can think of a greater degree of complexity than what we are seeing at Eletrobras.”
The bank UBS BB sees fewer obstacles than Eletrobras, which operates in more regulated sectors, but still assesses that the privatization of the largest Brazilian state-owned company depends on the reelection of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
“[A privatização da Petrobras] may require changes to the Brazilian Petroleum Law, which may face significant resistance in Congress, but this could go ahead, as happened in the case of the privatization of Eletrobras,” analysts Luiz Carvalho, Matheus Enfeldt and Tasso Vasconcellos wrote in a report.
Given the uncertainties about the progress of the proposal, analysts avoid projections about the impact of an eventual privatization on the company’s shares. Likewise, the assessment is that it is still not possible to measure the impact of the change in the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy) on the sector.
“At the moment, there is no clarity about any potential changes under the new management of the ministry”, summarize Goldman Sachs analysts Bruno Amorim, João Frizo and Guilherme Costa Martins.
Albuquerque was exonerated by Bolsonaro just over two days after an 8.87% increase in the price of diesel at Petrobras refineries. The previous week, the President of the Republic had complained about the high profits of the state-owned company and appealed for there to be no new increases.
Within Petrobras and in the oil sector, the decision to change the command of the ministry to which the company is linked was seen as yet another measure to try to please dissatisfied supporters, especially truck drivers.
It is the third change in government after fuel price readjustments, without any significant change in the company’s pricing policy. The first two dismissed were presidents of Petrobras: Roberto Castello Branco and General Joaquim Silva e Luna.
Appointed by Albuquerque, the current president, José Mauro Coelho, defended the pricing policy before and after taking office, claiming that the practice of artificial prices poses risks to the country’s fuel supply.
The market’s assessment is that, in addition to harming supply, an order for the damming of prices can be questioned by minority shareholders and become the focus of investigations at the CVM (Securities Commission), as it violates the company’s statute.
“This ‘chair dance’ that the president has been doing is to exempt himself from the responsibility he has for the rise in fuel prices”, criticized the general coordinator of the FUP (Single Federation of Oil Workers), Deyvid Bacelar.
The union federation is critical of the current pricing policy and promises “the biggest strike in the history of the oil category” if Petrobras’ privatization proposal goes ahead.
Coelho has not yet commented on the privatization proposal and there is still no news about his permanence in office. He would meet with the new minister of Mines and Energy earlier this Thursday night.
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