42% of debtors in the Positive Registry are over-indebted

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A survey based on data from the 130 million consumers and companies registered in the Cadastro Positivo —a sort of list of good payers— classifies 42% of debtors as over-indebted, that is, with debts out of control.

Another 13% are at the limit of control, and 24% are closer to settling their pending issues. There are also the disorganized (21%), those who go in and out of delinquency, with more expenses up to date than overdue, according to a classification made by the data intelligence company Quod.

The Cadastro Positivo numbers, which also include data on bank credit and consumer accounts, for example, show a 15% increase in total indebtedness at the beginning of the year compared to the same period in 2021, confirming a trend seen in other countries. indicators.

In a scenario of high interest rates, high inflation and a drop in the population’s income, delinquency has started to grow again and may represent a restriction on the consumption of goods and services via credit.

Central Bank data show that the rate of bank debts in arrears for more than 90 days has grown since July last year, but is still far from the peaks seen in 2012, 2016 and 2020.

Serasa’s numbers, which provide a more comprehensive picture of debts, show that the total number of debtors is close to the record reached at the beginning of the pandemic: 65 million people. There are R$ 265.8 million in debts, or R$ 4,046 per person, with emphasis on the percentage of debts on the card (28%), consumer accounts (23%) and retail (13%).

The five big financial institutions, which released their quarterly balance sheets this week, estimate that the numbers will still get worse this year, but should stabilize in the second half.

Cadastro Positivo actually started to gain a relevant number of participants only in 2020. As it takes some time to form a good credit history, this should be the first moment of high in delinquency in which the tool will be available to improve analysis of concessions and collection of arrears.

In this way, according to him, it is possible to identify a consumer who does not have overdue debts, but is heavily indebted and whose income is compromised by the renegotiations of overdue debts. Or someone with the name in negative records, but low indebtedness and ability to regularize the situation.

“We can not only see who is in arrears, but what is happening with the person who is in arrears. Who do I charge, how do I charge, how can I grant better credit, all of this is possible with the Positive Registry. This is a difference [para outros momentos de alta da inadimplência]”, says Ricardo Thomaziello, responsible for Quod’s data area.

According to the analysis carried out by the company, the increase in the number of debtors occurred mainly in the categories of those who are at the limit of control over indebtedness and those who are close to regularizing the situation.

Among those who already had delays in registration, 15% migrated to a better situation and 11% to a worse situation.

All major financial institutions recorded an increase in delinquency in the first quarter of the year.

Milton Maluhy Filho, president of Itaú, stated during the release of the results that, in a scenario of high interest rates and inflation, the tendency is for default rates to continue with moderate increases during the coming quarters.

A similar perception was conveyed by the presidents of Bradesco, Octavio de Lazari Junior, and of Banco do Brasil, Fausto Ribeiro.

The CEO of Santander Brasil, Mario Leão, does not expect the rising trend in default to continue at the same pace over the next quarters of the year, but he also says that it is still not possible to see, at this moment, any more substantial improvement in the indexes.

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