COVID-19 Pandemic: Towards an end?

The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. However, for most, a pandemic cannot be declared “over” when the US alone averages more than 71,000 new cases and more than 400 deaths per day. The corresponding figures worldwide are 500,000 cases and almost 2,000 deaths each day.

Biden’s claim (made to reporter Scott Pelley) sparked an explosion in the debate about COVID-19, has rattled an already divided public, fueled extensive television news coverage and prompted experts to take a stand.
“Some strongly disagree that the pandemic is over, pointing out that COVID-19 remains a public health emergency in the United States. The P.O.Y. it still considers it a “pandemic” and more importantly, the virus still kills more than 2,000 people a day worldwide.

Still others point out that most of the Americas, Europe and Australia are protected either by vaccination, previous disease, or a combination of the two, at least for now. They insist that now is the right time to declare the end of the pandemic and to accept what a large part of society has already accepted”, points out Mr. Dimitris Cafetzis, Emeritus Professor of Pediatrics EKPA, Metropolitan Hospital Pediatric Department Management Consultant.

In a poll conducted by the media websites “Axios” and “Ipsos” and published on September 13, it was found that 46% of Americans say their lives have returned to pre-pandemic levels – the highest percentage since the start of the pandemic. While 57% say they are still worried, at least partially, about the existence of the virus and its mutations.

Expiration or “capitulation”?

Eric Topol, MD, vice president of Scripps Research and editor-in-chief of Medscape believes that the pandemic is not over and there must be a balance between protecting public health and the freedom of individuals to decide how to manage their lives based on their risk tolerance.

Topol coined the phrase “capitulation to COVID-19” in May, in the midst of a wave of disease outbreaks from the Omicron BA.2 variant of the coronavirus.

Topol sees that there may be hope on the horizon and believes that: “We are in a downward spiral in terms of the virus that is circulating. We’ll have a few quiet months, but we’ll be back on a new high.” He and others are tracking emerging variants, including the BA.2.75.2 subvariant, which is also more contagious than BA.5.

This opinion is shared by many scientists who recommend the continuation of some preventive measures, which mainly concern the protection of the most vulnerable people and the caution of the healthy when they associate with them. Many believe that the worst is behind us, but the recommendation that vaccination is the most effective means of protection against the virus remains.

Can we really predict the future of the pandemic?

The question that now arises is whether we can predict the future of the pandemic.
Does the Omicron variant mean the end of it? Of course, the pandemic is a difficult model to predict, given that new sub-variants of Omicron are spreading very quickly. Furthermore, vaccination strategies vary by state and immunity levels by population and by state differ, while the potential of SARS-CoV-2 for new mutations is inexhaustible.

“The mutations and variants of the coronavirus are indeed inexhaustible – so far there are about one to two mutations per month. We already count over 100. More than one mutation usually leads to variation. Several variants are already known, the most important of which are Alpha or British, Delta or Indian and Omicron or Botswana, which have caused large epidemic waves. Of course, there have also been minor variants such as B, C and M that did not cause large epidemic waves”, explains the doctor.

In Omicron the researchers have persisted a bit more with the sub-variants, since they are indeed derived from the original Omicron and are all characterized by affecting mainly the upper and less of the lower respiratory system, while competing with each other in contagion speed.

The original Omicron comes from the mutation that gave Alpha and Gamma, and is unrelated to that strain that gave Beta and Delta.

She, with about 30 mutations, gave rise to two subvariants, BA.1, which carried only one additional mutation, and BA.2, which carried over 50 mutations from the original strain, including reversions of some of its mutations Omicron. BA.2 gave rise to BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1, each newer being more contagious than the previous one due to particular mutations made in the S-protein. Certainly they are not the only ones, there are already mentioned in the literature and newer ones such as BA.2.7, BQ1.1, BF.7, XBB and BQ.1.1.

With the appearance of all these subvariants of Omicron, whose main feature was faster transmissibility and their resistance to the vaccines available until the beginning of summer, the effort to produce newer vaccines was fully justified.

“Data from Qatar showed that people who had been infected before Omicron were only 15% protected against symptomatic new infection by the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants. Also, if the previous infection was due to another subvariant of Omicron, the protection against new infection reached 75%. Thus, initially, and before the appearance of the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, the first bivalent vaccine was prepared, which provides immunity against the S-protein of the original strain and the Omicron BA.1 subvariant. The vaccine was well studied, the results of the studies were satisfactory and, despite the fact that its effectiveness was much lower than that of the original vaccine (95% success), it was satisfactory. However, when Omicron’s BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants prevailed, the manufacturing company proceeded to produce a newer bivalent vaccine that included the S-protein of the original strain and BA.4, BA.5,” says the expert.

Therefore, the question is whether to revaccinate with the new Omicron vaccines and, if so, with which of the two newer ones?
The need and timing of vaccination is a complex matter, because any previous coronavirus infections, as well as the strain that has caused them, should be taken into account. This can be hypothetically determined by the time period in which the infection took place. In general, the factors to be taken into account are the schedule of vaccinations that have been carried out, the time that has elapsed since the last dose of vaccination or illness and the combination of illness and vaccination.

To simplify the question of whether or not revaccination is necessary, guidelines for people who need to be revaccinated have been issued and posted online. And it is true that when the instructions are followed the results are always better.
But the main question that continues to hang is whether the Omicron variant is indeed the tail of the pandemic.

Russian flu and COVID-19
Scientists Harald Brüssow and Lutz Brüssow published in Microbial Biotechnology, in July 2021, an article entitled “Clinical evidence that the pandemic from 1889 to 1891 commonly called the Russian flu might have been an earlier coronavirus pandemic”. The article argues that the Russian flu, the world’s first well-documented pandemic, probably had more in common with the current pandemic than with influenza. It appeared when the modern germ theory was emerging and the miasma theory was disintegrating. Then the modern era of medicine and public health began.

References in books of the time state that that pandemic killed about a million people worldwide from 1889 to 1891. It probably lasted much longer, however, and, in some other form, may still exist today.

According to the National Library of Medicine of the US National Institutes of Health the Russian flu lasted in a milder form until 1894, while according to the UK literature almost a decade.

A contemporary article on the condition, citing a 344-page report by physicians who experienced the disease in 1891 in London, described Russian patients with “influenza” who had a “harsh, dry cough,” fever of 100 to 105 F, “frontal headache of particular severity’, ‘pain in the eyes’, ‘general feeling of wretchedness (discomfort) and weakness, severe depression’ and ‘crying, nervous restlessness, inability to sleep and occasional delirium’.

The symptoms of the disease are more reminiscent of the coronavirus than the flu. The respiratory infection, simultaneously with severe neurological symptoms, manifests itself in the Russian flu and in COVID-19. Also, Long COVID is also described in the Russian flu pandemic. Sufferers were incapacitated for a long time. There was an increase in suicides and an inability to return to full work capacity as with COVID-19, while children seemed relatively immune or, if they did get sick, less and mildly affected. Those who were elderly, as well as those with co-existing conditions such as heart disease, tuberculosis or diabetes, were more vulnerable to the disease and often with a fatal course. In addition, almost 10% of cases presented persistent symptoms, recorded as “long enduring evil effects”.

The interest in the coronavirus as the cause of the Russian flu was triggered by the fact that at the time of the second a large cattle pandemic was also described.

When scientists realized how genetically similar the known human coronavirus OC43 is to the bovine coronavirus, the theory of the common ancestor that arose around 1890, – the time of the Russian flu and the great cattle pandemics – and spread to humans, became particularly interesting. .

“OC43, a common human coronavirus that often causes the common cold is a mild disease that can cause bronchitis, bronchiolitis and pneumonia in children and the elderly, as well as in immunosuppressed patients.

If we accept the reports of Harald Brüssow, who does not believe that the current pandemic ends with the Omicron variant, then indeed the main body of the pandemic has reached or is coming to an end, while the “tail” of the pandemic exists and, perhaps, after another 100 years, some people will have a common cold from SARS-CoV-2″, concludes Mr Kafetzis.

Written by:

Mr. Dimitris Kafetzis, Emeritus Professor of Pediatrics EKPA,

Metropolitan Hospital Pediatric Department Management Consultant

Read the News today and get the latest news.
Follow Skai.gr on Google News and be the first to know all the news.