Covid cases could rise in Brazil in the coming weeks, experts warn

The new wave of Covid that is already advancing in Asia, Europe and the United States raises an alert for Brazil, according to experts.

The withdrawal of measures against Covid, such as the use of masks, and the greater interaction of people are already reflected in an increase in cases, which can lead to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, although considerably lower than in previous years. of the pandemic.

In the state of São Paulo, new ICU admissions for Covid increased by 86.5% from October 17 to the last 31, while new admissions in the metropolitan region of SP grew by 46% in the same period. Currently, 324 people are hospitalized in the state of SP, a number that represents about 20% of what was observed in the wave of the omicron in January, but 40% higher than two weeks ago.

According to Rosana Richtmann, from the Emílio Ribas Institute of Infectious Diseases, there is already a clear increase in the number of cases. “We infectologists have already noticed, in the last two weeks, an increase in Covid visits, and this is already reflected in the greater demand in emergency rooms, which are our thermometer. In the next two weeks I believe we will already detect a significant increase in new cases “, it says.

The upward trend, verified through data on the moving average of cases and deaths in the country, is something that also occurred at other peaks of the pandemic.

“From December 2021 to February of this year we had a very sharp increase due to the introduction of the omicron. Then we had again in May and June an upward peak with BA.2 [subvariante]. Now, we are seeing an upward trend, but it is important to note that at a much lower level”, explains the professor of mathematics and computing at Unesp and coordinator of the SP Covid-19 InfoTracker, Wallace Casaca.

According to him, the reproduction rate of the coronavirus in the country, the so-called Rt, is already approaching 1 — it is at 0.91 —, and has been rising since October 10, when it was at 0.68.

Despite being in a “situation of possible control”, expectations are high in the coming days. A reproduction rate above 1 means that every 100 infected people transmit to 100 more. The ideal is that the Rt is below 1, because this way it is possible to control the virus.

The hypothesis raised by Casaca is that the greater movement of people in recent weeks —due to the electoral period and return to face-to-face work— may have caused the increase, since the presence of other lineages of the omicron has not yet been observed here.

Although it is still too early to know whether the new cases will reflect in a scenario like the one at the beginning of this year, the researcher says that prevention is better than cure.

“Although they are still numbers below 200 [novas internações no estado de São Paulo]considering that we have 2,000 a day, it is a situation to be on the alert, especially with the holiday season approaching”, he explains.

He reinforces that the pandemic is not over yet and it is important to adopt some care again. “We have reason to celebrate today, much for the advent of vaccines, but it is still a time to be alert and think about ways to protect the most vulnerable,” he says.

Other indicators are also beginning to show signs of this upward trend in the country. Surveys obtained by Sheet of private network laboratories, such as the Dasa network, Grupo Fleury and Abramed (Brazilian Association of Diagnostic Medicine), which gathers data from the private network of laboratories, the positivity rate of Covid tests has been growing in the last four weeks of October .

Fleury showed a positivity of 12% on the 16th of October, while the data up to the last 31st point to a positivity of 30% – an increase of 2.5 times. The number of tests requested on the network also doubled, from around 300 per day to a daily average of 600.

The positivity rate on the Dasa network went from 3% in the first days of the month to 30% in the last week. The survey carried out by Abramed points to a similar jump, from 3.7%, in the first week of October, to 17.3% until the last day 28, an increase of 367%, although the number of exams carried out in the last week is lower than that observed at the beginning of the month (from 21,552 to 18,935).

At Dasa, there was no detection of any new variant that could be associated with the increase in positive cases, as occurred in the US and Europe, but that does not mean that the same scenario cannot occur here, explains the virologist and person responsible for the surveillance project. genomics group, José Eduardo Levi.

“It still doesn’t seem to me that some of these sublines are in circulation. Now, that could change in the coming months, and we need to take precautions now,” he says.

According to the researcher, the current moment of the pandemic, without control measures, should create a favorable environment for these more transmissible strains if they arrive in the country.

The infectologist and clinical director of Grupo Fleury, Celso Granato, says that, unlike what happens in the Northern Hemisphere, with the arrival of the cold season, the increase in cases in Brazil may be partly because of the agglomerations and partly because we have recently had a flu wave.

And, until the end of the pandemic comes, experts recommend some precautions, especially for the holidays. “Older and immunosuppressed people should have their vaccines up to date, especially with a more recent booster, to increase protection against the micron, and also maintain the use of a mask, if possible, in some closed places”, reinforces Granato.